With just a single home and away game yet to play, the only interest is in estimating:

1. The probability that Gold Coast defeat Essendon and thereby claim a spot in the Finals at the expense of Western Bulldogs

2. The probability that they do so by a sufficiently wide margin to have them finishing above Hawthorn

To finish above Hawthorn:

• If Gold Coast scores 80 points, they need to win by 26 points or more

• If Gold Coast scores 100 points, they need to win by 29 points or more

• If Gold Coast scores 120 points, they need to win by 32 points or more

This year’s post Round 23 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: certain or near-certain of being finalists; 50-65% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Hawthorn and GWS: certain of being finalists; 10-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Western Bulldogs: about 85% chance of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Fremantle: around 15% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney, St Kilda, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Gold Coast: certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Collingwood: certain of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, and Hawthorn: around 75-85% chance of being finalists; 15-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS: around 75% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Western Bulldogs: about 85% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Sydney, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; around 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 7% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 65-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: around 98% chance of being finalists; 55% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle, GWS, and Western Bulldogs: around 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 1-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Hawthorn: about 60% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: around 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Brisbane Lions: around 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS: around 90% chance of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 2-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 19 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood and Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90-95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; around 70% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle, GWS, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 75-85% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Sydney: roughly 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 18 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 75% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-5% chances of Top 4; 3-7% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Western Bulldogs: about 90% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Hawthorn: about 75-80% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Fremantle: roughly 60% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Sydney: roughly 5% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

9. Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 17 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-60% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: about 95% chance of being finalists; 35% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Hawthorn: about 85% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Fremantle: roughly 55-65% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney: roughly 5% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 16 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-60% chances of Top 4; 2-8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast and Hawthorn: about 85-90% chance of being finalists; 20-30% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle: roughly 70% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS: about 50% chance of being finalists; 4% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: 2-7% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 2-5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: about 85% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Hawthorn and Fremantle: roughly 70-75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS: about 55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney and Carlton: about 10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Port Adelaide, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: 1-<1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood & Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-50% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Gold Coast: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-55% chances of Top 4; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, and Fremantle: roughly 70-80% chance of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS: about 50% chance of being finalists; 4% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and St Kilda: roughly 1-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; over 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide: over 95% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle and Hawthorn: about 75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Essendon: 3-7% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Western Bulldogs and Adelaide: roughly 95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 6-8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 6% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle: about 75% chance of being finalists; 12% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Hawthorn: about 50-55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Carlton: about 25-30% chances of being finalists; 1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, Essendon, Sydney, and St Kilda: 5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

9. Port Adelaide: 2% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

10. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong and Gold Coast: 93-99% chance of being finalists; 60-80% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Western Bulldogs: 95% chance of being finalists; 65% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: about 85-90% chance of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle: about 50-65% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne: 10-25% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda, Essendon, Port Adelaide: 2-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 80-85% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast: 90-95% chance of being finalists; 60-75% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn, Adelaide, Brisbane Lions: about 70-85% chance of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS, Fremantle, Carlton. Sydney: about 40% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda, Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide: 3-4% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: over 95% chance of being finalists; 80% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Gold Coast, Adelaide: 80-90% chance of being finalists; 40-50% chances of Top 4; 7-13% chances of being Minor Premier

3. GWS: about 65% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton: about 45% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Sydney: about 25% chance of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 75% chances of Top 4; 30% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn, Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; 35-40% chances of Top 4; 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: about 70% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. GWS, Carlton: about 45-50% chance of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Sydney: about 35% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1-1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 85% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn, Gold Coast: about 75% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS, Adelaide, Carlton: about 60% chances of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle: about 40% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Port Adelaide, Sydney: about 25% chances of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda, Essendon: about 10% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 65-80% chances of Top 4; 20-40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Adelaide: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 30-40% chances of Top 4; 6-9% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Gold Coast: about 60% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney, Port Adelaide: about 35-45% chances of being finalists; 9-13% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda, Essendon: about 15-20% chances of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Richmond, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% to 1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Hawthorn Geelong: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; 50-55% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Gold Coast, GWS: about 75% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide: about 60% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Sydney, St Kilda: about 40-50% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier