2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R19

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This year’s post Round 19 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood and Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90-95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; around 70% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, GWS, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 75-85% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney: roughly 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We have 9 teams with a 3-in-5 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and six with about or better than a 1-in-4 chance of finishing Top 4.

Whilst Geelong has a 62% chance of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams with credible chances would be 70% or more confident of playing Finals with at least 13.5 wins.

The Lions are only 30% chances with 13.5 or 14 wins because of their relatively low percentage (116.8) and the fact that their finishing on at most 14 wins would mean they’d taken only 0.5 wins from playing Gold Coast, Collingwood, Sydney, Fremantle, and Hawthorn.

Looking at the changes in Finals chances, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Fremantle: 17% point increase (to 78%) in probability of playing Finals

  • Brisbane Lions: 13% point increase (to 70%) of finishing Top 4

  • Adelaide: 10% point increase (to 92%) of finishing Top 4

DECREASES

  • Western Bulldogs: 12% point decrease (to 78%) in probability of playing Finals, and 18% point decrease (to 5%) of finishing Top 4

  • Gold Coast: 17% point decrease (to 26%) of finishing Top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Collingwood (about $4)

  • Adelaide (about $4.35)

  • Geelong (about $5.30)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $7.15)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $14.30)

  • Hawthorn (about $20)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 9,929 different Top 18s

  • 5,736 different Top 8s (which contain 26 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 610 different Top 4s (which contain 83 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, there was another significant increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now only about a 1-in-5 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 3-in-5 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-5 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now about a 3-in-8 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (up to 38% from 35%)

  • There’s now almost a 5-in-12 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 42% from 39%)

  • There’s now about a 3-in-13 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 23% from 17%)