2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 22

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); certain of Top 4; roughly 97% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: certain of being finalists; roughly 80% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; roughly 50% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: certain of being finalists; roughly 30% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Adelaide and Geelong: certain of being finalists; roughly 15-20% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Collingwood: certain of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Western Bulldogs: certain of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 80% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  10. St Kilda: about 15% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  11. GWS: about 5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  12. North Melbourne: <0.5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  13. Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 21

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 99% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 95% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 25-40% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: 97-98% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton and St Kilda: about 35-50% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 20

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 99% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 70% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, and Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 2-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda: about 75% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton and GWS: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 19

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 19 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 99% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 80% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; about 50-60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS: about 35% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: about 1-2% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 18

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 18 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 95% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; about 60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 30% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Melbourne and Geelong: about 97% chances of being finalists; roughly 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS and St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: about 2-6% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 17

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 17 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 70% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; about 55% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide, Geelong and Melbourne: about 96-98% chances of being finalists; roughly 20-30% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 70-80% chances of being finalists; about 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda: about 50% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton and GWS: about 35-40% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 16

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 16 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: 97-98% chances of being finalists; about 15-25% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Melbourne: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Collingwood: about 55% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton, St Kilda, and Gold Coast: about 35-45% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. GWS: about 25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 15

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 55% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide: about 99% chances of being finalists; about 40% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Brisbane Lions: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Western Bulldogs and Melbourne: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; about 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Collingwood, Gold Coast, Carlton, and St Kilda: about 45-55% chances of being finalists; 1% or less chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. GWS: about 30% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. Port Adelaide: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  12. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 14

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 35% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 30-35% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Brisbane Lions and Melbourne: about 90-95% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Gold Coast and St Kilda: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS and Collingwood: about 45-50% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 13

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-35% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne: about 85-95% chances of being finalists; about 10-20% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Gold Coast and GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 3-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Collingwood and St Kilda: about 45% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 12

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle and Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-45% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 75-85% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Gold Coast, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 5-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS and Collingwood: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. St Kilda: about 45% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Carlton and North Melbourne: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 11

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 35-40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: about 99% chances of being finalists; roughly 70-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: about 90% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne, Adelaide, and Gold Coast: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 65% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda and GWS: about 45-55% chances of being finalists; 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne Carlton, and Port Adelaide: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 10

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 45-50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Hawthorn: about 99% chances of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 35% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Adelaide: about 85% chances of being finalists; about 10-20% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda: about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. GWS and Port Adelaide: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne and Carlton: about 5-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 9

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney : virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions and Geelong: over 95% chances of being finalists; roughly 50% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs: about 80% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; about <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, and St Kilda: about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 3-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton: about 3% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 8

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: roughly 97-98% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: about 90% chances of being finalists; roughly 35% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide: about 70-80% chances of being finalists; about 5-15% chances of Top 4; about <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 35% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 3% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 7

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-45% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: roughly 95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 55-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: about 85% chances of being finalists; roughly 30% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, and St Kilda: about 50-60% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Port Adelaide: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. North Melbourne: about 25% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton: about 5% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast and Essendon: about 1% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 6

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn and Sydney: 99% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 75-80% chances of Top 4; roughly 25-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong and Fremantle: roughly 97% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs: about 90-95% chances of being finalists; roughly 35-40% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 80% chances of being finalists; about 20-25% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Collingwood. Melbourne, and GWS: about 50-60% chances of being finalists; about 5-7% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton, West Coast, and Essendon: about 3-6% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 5

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn and Sydney: 99% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 70-80% chances of Top 4; roughly 25-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Brisbane Lions: 96-98% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Gold Coast: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; roughly 25-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Collingwood and GWS: about 60-65% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and Melbourne: about 40-45% chances of being finalists; about 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton, West Coast, and Essendon: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 4

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, and Sydney: 95% or higher chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, and Gold Coast: 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 40-50% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: about 80% chances of being finalists; roughly 25% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide, Melbourne, and Collingwood, : about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. GWS: about 50% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, North Melbourne, and Port Adelaide: about 25-35% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton and West Coast: about 6-8% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 3

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, and Hawthorn: about 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-65% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: about 85-90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 40-45% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, and Adelaide: about 75-80% chances of being finalists; roughly 20-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and St Kilda: about 40-45% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; about 0.5-<1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; about <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Richmond and Essendon: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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