2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 15

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 55% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide: about 99% chances of being finalists; about 40% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Brisbane Lions: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Western Bulldogs and Melbourne: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; about 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Collingwood, Gold Coast, Carlton, and St Kilda: about 45-55% chances of being finalists; 1% or less chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. GWS: about 30% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. Port Adelaide: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  12. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 14

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 35% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 30-35% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Brisbane Lions and Melbourne: about 90-95% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Gold Coast and St Kilda: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS and Collingwood: about 45-50% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 13

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-35% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne: about 85-95% chances of being finalists; about 10-20% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Gold Coast and GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 3-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Collingwood and St Kilda: about 45% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 12

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Fremantle and Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-45% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 75-85% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Gold Coast, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 5-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS and Collingwood: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. St Kilda: about 45% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Carlton and North Melbourne: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 11

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 35-40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn: about 99% chances of being finalists; roughly 70-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: about 90% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne, Adelaide, and Gold Coast: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 65% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda and GWS: about 45-55% chances of being finalists; 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne Carlton, and Port Adelaide: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 10

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 45-50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Hawthorn: about 99% chances of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 35% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Adelaide: about 85% chances of being finalists; about 10-20% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda: about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. GWS and Port Adelaide: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne and Carlton: about 5-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 9

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney : virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions and Geelong: over 95% chances of being finalists; roughly 50% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs: about 80% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; about <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, and St Kilda: about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 3-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton: about 3% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 8

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: roughly 97-98% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: about 90% chances of being finalists; roughly 35% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide: about 70-80% chances of being finalists; about 5-15% chances of Top 4; about <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 35% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton: about 3% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 7

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Sydney and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-45% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: roughly 95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 55-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: about 85% chances of being finalists; roughly 30% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, and St Kilda: about 50-60% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Port Adelaide: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. North Melbourne: about 25% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton: about 5% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. West Coast and Essendon: about 1% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 6

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn and Sydney: 99% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 75-80% chances of Top 4; roughly 25-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong and Fremantle: roughly 97% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs: about 90-95% chances of being finalists; roughly 35-40% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 80% chances of being finalists; about 20-25% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Adelaide: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Collingwood. Melbourne, and GWS: about 50-60% chances of being finalists; about 5-7% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Carlton, West Coast, and Essendon: about 3-6% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 5

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn and Sydney: 99% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 70-80% chances of Top 4; roughly 25-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Brisbane Lions: 96-98% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Gold Coast: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; roughly 25-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Collingwood and GWS: about 60-65% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and Melbourne: about 40-45% chances of being finalists; about 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Carlton, West Coast, and Essendon: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 4

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, and Sydney: 95% or higher chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, and Gold Coast: 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 40-50% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: about 80% chances of being finalists; roughly 25% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide, Melbourne, and Collingwood, : about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. GWS: about 50% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, North Melbourne, and Port Adelaide: about 25-35% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton and West Coast: about 6-8% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 3

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, and Hawthorn: about 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-65% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: about 85-90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 40-45% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, and Adelaide: about 75-80% chances of being finalists; roughly 20-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne and St Kilda: about 40-45% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; about 0.5-<1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; about <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Richmond and Essendon: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 2

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, and Brisbane Lions: about 90-95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Fremantle, Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, and Collingwood: about 70-80% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; roughly 20-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. St Kilda, Melbourne, and Port Adelaide: about 35-45% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton, North Melbourne, and West Coast: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; about 1-3% chances of Top 4; about <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Richmond and Essendon: about 5-10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 1

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SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions: about 85 to 90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 45 to 50% chances of Top 4; roughly 10 to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast, Sydney, and Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 35 to 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 5 to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong, Fremantle, Collingwood, and GWS: about 65 to 75% chances of being finalists; roughly 20 to 30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: about 50% chances of being finalists; about 12% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and North Melbourne: about 30 to 40% chances of being finalists; about 5 to 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: about 15 to 25% chances of being finalists; about 2 to 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast and Essendon: about 5 to 10% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn and Brisbane Lions: about 85 to 90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 45 to 50% chances of Top 4; roughly 10 to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast, Sydney, and Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 35 to 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 5 to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong, Fremantle, Collingwood, and GWS: about 65 to 75% chances of being finalists; roughly 20 to 30% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: about 50% chances of being finalists; about 12% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and North Melbourne: about 30 to 40% chances of being finalists; about 5 to 10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: about 15 to 25% chances of being finalists; about 2 to 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast and Essendon: about 5 to 10% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 0

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This year’s post Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs: about 90% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 50-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Gold Coast: about 85% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 45% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong and Hawthorn: about 80% chances of being finalists; roughly 35-40% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS, Collingwood, Adelaide, Sydney, and Fremantle: about 65-75% chances of being finalists; roughly 25-35% of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne: about 55% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Port Adelaide and St Kilda: about 35-40% chances of being finalists; about 5-10% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton and North Melbourne: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; about 3-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Richmond, Essendon, and West Coast: about 10 to 15% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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2026 : Simulating the Final Ladder Before Round 0

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Welcome to the first season simulation for 2026.

As you might imagine, after more than a decade of simulating the remainder of men’s AFL seasons, the code required to do so has become … substantial. It now contains lines strewn throughout to handle this or that particular edge case — the introduction of a Round 0, the reintroduction of byes, including byes in the first round of a season, games that were supposedly from the same round but played months apart, and so on. It’s less a script now and more a living record of pandemics, bad weather, and competition rejiggery.

So when I heard that the League had confirmed that the 2026 season would involve a wildcard round, I looked forward to updating my code much as an American turkey looks forward to Thanksgiving.

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2025 : Simulating the Finals After R24.1

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FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

MoSHBODS now has the following opinions about the Finals

Flag favouritism is then, currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $2.65)

  • Adelaide (about $5)

  • Collingwood (about $6.25)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $6.70)

  • Gold Coast (about $16.70)

We can break down those numbers for each team now into which team they lose to in order to bow out in a particular week of the Finals.

Lastly, we can also take a look at likely Grand Final pairings and who fares best in each pairing.

The most common pairings are

  • Geelong / Adelaide, which accounts for about 23% of all Grand Finals. Geelong wins about 66% of those.

  • Geelong / Brisbane Lions: about 18% of GFs, Geelong wins about 65%

  • Collingwood / Adelaide: about 13% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 55%

  • Geelong / Collingwood: about 12% of GFs, Geelong wins about 64%

  • Brisbane Lions / Adelaide: about 9% of GFs, Brisbane Lions wins just over half

  • Collingwood / Brisbane Lions: about 5% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 54%

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, which meant that the Suns entered the Finals at the expense of the Dogs, there was an increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now only about a 1-in-8 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another near 3-in-4 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-8 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.