The only teams capable of winning the Flag this year are now the six teams that filled the top half-dozen places on the competition ladder at the end of the home-and-away season.

So we now have an official Final 8 with Carlton taking a spot at Melbourne’s expense after finishing 10th in the regular season.

According to the latest MoSHBODS-based simulations, they are about 7% chances of making the Grand Final, and 4% chances of winning it.

Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of the Finals simulations this season is what chances they give the teams in 6th through 10th of a) making, and b) winning the Grand Final.

MoSHBODS gives the following estimates:

• One or more teams from the Wildcard Finals makes the Grand Final: 10%

• One of the teams from the Wildcard Finals wins the Grand Final: 6%

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 23 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: certain of being Minor Premiers

2. Sydney: certain of Top 4

3. Hawthorn: certain of being finalists; 95% chance of Top 6; roughly 80-85% chances of Top 4

4. Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; 95% chance of Top 6; roughly 60% chances of Top 4

5. Melbourne: certain of being finalists; roughly 80% chance of Top 6; roughly 35-40% chances of Top 4

6. Geelong: certain of being finalists; roughly 95% chance of Top 6; roughly 20% chances of Top 4

7. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; roughly 30% chance of Top 6; roughly 1% chances of Top 4

8. Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Carlton: certain of being finalists; no chance of Top 6

9. St Kilda, GWS, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: no chance of being finalists

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); certain of Top 4; roughly 97% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: certain of being finalists; roughly 80% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; roughly 50% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne: certain of being finalists; roughly 30% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Adelaide and Geelong: certain of being finalists; roughly 15-20% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Collingwood: certain of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Western Bulldogs: certain of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

9. Carlton: about 80% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

10. St Kilda: about 15% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

11. GWS: about 5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

12. North Melbourne: <0.5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

13. Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 99% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 95% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 25-40% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: 97-98% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Carlton and St Kilda: about 35-50% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. GWS: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 99% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 70% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Adelaide and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, and Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 2-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda: about 75% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Carlton and GWS: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 19 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 99% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 80% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; about 50-60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. GWS: about 35% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. Carlton: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

10. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: about 1-2% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 18 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 95% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; about 60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 30% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Melbourne and Geelong: about 97% chances of being finalists; roughly 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. GWS and St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. Carlton: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

10. North Melbourne, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: about 2-6% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 17 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 70% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; about 55% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Adelaide, Geelong and Melbourne: about 96-98% chances of being finalists; roughly 20-30% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 70-80% chances of being finalists; about 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda: about 50% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Carlton and GWS: about 35-40% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

10. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 16 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: 97-98% chances of being finalists; about 15-25% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Western Bulldogs and Melbourne: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Collingwood: about 55% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Carlton, St Kilda, and Gold Coast: about 35-45% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. GWS: about 25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

10. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 55% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Adelaide: about 99% chances of being finalists; about 40% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Brisbane Lions: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Western Bulldogs and Melbourne: about 85-90% chances of being finalists; about 4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Collingwood, Gold Coast, Carlton, and St Kilda: about 45-55% chances of being finalists; 1% or less chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. GWS: about 30% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

10. North Melbourne: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

11. Port Adelaide: about 5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

12. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 35% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Adelaide: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 30-35% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Brisbane Lions and Melbourne: about 90-95% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Western Bulldogs: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Gold Coast and St Kilda: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; about 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. GWS and Collingwood: about 45-50% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. Carlton: about 25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

10. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

11. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-35% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne: about 85-95% chances of being finalists; about 10-20% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Gold Coast and GWS: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 3-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Collingwood and St Kilda: about 45% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Carlton: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Fremantle and Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-45% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Hawthorn and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 75-85% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide, Gold Coast, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 5-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS and Collingwood: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda: about 45% chances of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Carlton and North Melbourne: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Port Adelaide: about 10% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. West Coast, Richmond, and Essendon: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney and Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 35-40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn: about 99% chances of being finalists; roughly 70-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions: about 90% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne, Adelaide, and Gold Coast: about 75-85% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Western Bulldogs and Collingwood: about 65% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda and GWS: about 45-55% chances of being finalists; 2-3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne Carlton, and Port Adelaide: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 45-50% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Fremantle: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong and Hawthorn: about 99% chances of being finalists; roughly 65-75% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions: about 95% chances of being finalists; about 35% chances of Top 4; about 2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Adelaide: about 85% chances of being finalists; about 10-20% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda: about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. GWS and Port Adelaide: about 20-25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne and Carlton: about 5-15% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney : virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Fremantle and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20-30% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions and Geelong: over 95% chances of being finalists; roughly 50% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs: about 80% chances of being finalists; about 10-15% chances of Top 4; about <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, and St Kilda: about 60-70% chances of being finalists; about 3-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide: about 25% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Carlton: about 3% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: roughly 97-98% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 60-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong: about 90% chances of being finalists; roughly 35% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, and Adelaide: about 70-80% chances of being finalists; about 5-15% chances of Top 4; about <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne and St Kilda: about 60% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS: about 35% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. Port Adelaide: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne: about 20% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. Carlton: about 3% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

10. Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

SUMMARY

This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney and Hawthorn: virtually certain of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-45% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions: roughly 95% chance of being finalists (including the wildcard finals); 55-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong: about 85% chances of being finalists; roughly 30% chances of Top 4; roughly 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: about 75% chances of being finalists; about 15% chances of Top 4; about 1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, and St Kilda: about 50-60% chances of being finalists; about 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Port Adelaide: about 40% chances of being finalists; about 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

7. North Melbourne: about 25% chances of being finalists; about 1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

8. Carlton: about 5% chances of being finalists; about <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

9. West Coast and Essendon: about 1% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

10. Richmond: <0.5% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier