2019 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 17

In the latest simulation replicates we see Brisbane Lions moving up to be second-favourites for the Flag, and now most-likely to finish 2nd at the end of the home-and-away season. The Lions win the Flag in about 18% of replicates, and do so from 1st or 2nd on the ladder about half the time.

Geelong wins the Flag about 22% of the time, but does so almost exclusively after finishing as Minor Premiers.

Collingwood, West Coast Coast, and Richmond are all 12 to 15% chances for the Flag, but most often win it after finishing outside the Top 2 on the final home-and-away ladder.

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2019 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 17

We’re now in a situation where 8 teams have a 65% or better shot at the Finals, and a ninth team, Port Adelaide, has about a 1 in 3 shot. As well, four teams now have a 60% or better shot at a Top 4 finish, and two more better than 1 in 4 chances. Geelong still has the proverbial stranglehold on the Minor Premiership, but of the three teams trailing them by two wins, Brisbane Lions is estimated as having by far the greatest chance of overhauling them.

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2019 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 6

Is it really only Round 6 and am I, honestly, proffering opinions about the end of the home-and-away season in a year where even the bookmakers have been only slightly more useful than a coin in tipping winners? As I kid, I reckon I was pretty steadfast in the face of relentless peer pressure (yeah, I was a geek the too), yet here am I, at my age, guessing into the wind about games to be played in August …

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2018 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 25 (Week 2 of the Finals)

After a four from four performance in tipping winners in Week 1 and a two from two performance in tipping winners in Week 2 of the Finals, MoSHBODS returns with its thoughts about the remaining three contests. These come by way of the latest simulation outputs (which use the methodology described here but, again, with no perturbation of the current offensive and defensive ratings) a summary of which appears below.

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2018 : Simulating the Finals Series After Round 24 (Week 1 of the Finals)

MoSHBODS was right about all four games in Week 1 of the Finals, and its thoughts about the remainder of the Finals series are embodied in the latest simulation outputs (which use the methodology described here but, again, with no perturbation of the current offensive and defensive ratings) a summary of which appears below.

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