2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R15

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This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 2-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 85% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Hawthorn and Fremantle: roughly 70-75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney and Carlton: about 10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: 1-<1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We have 9 teams with about or better than a 5-in-9 chance of finishing Top 8, and eight with about or better than a 2-in-17 chance of finishing Top 4.

Whilst half the teams still have about 60% chances or better of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, almost all teams would be far more certain (90%+) with at least 13.5 wins.

Best with 12.5 or 13 wins are Adelaide (86%), Western Bulldogs (83%), and North Melbourne (80% with a large standard error).

Looking at the changes in Finals chances, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Brisbane Lions: 13% point increase (to 94%) in probability of playing Finals and 25% point increase (to 48%) of finishing Top 4.

DECREASES

  • Carlton: 18% point decrease (to 12%) in probability of playing Finals

  • Gold Coast: 12% point decrease (to 30%) in probability of finishing Top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with prices shown in brackets):

  • Collingwood (about $3.70)

  • Geelong and Western Bulldogs (about $4.75)

  • Adelaide (about $10)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $11.10)

  • Hawthorn (about $20)

  • Gold Coast (about $25)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 9,997 different Top 18s

  • 7,693 different Top 8s (which contain 167 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 871 different Top 4s (which contain 111 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

There was a significant increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year, but that probability remains intransigently single digit.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now about a 9-in-20 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 1-in-2 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-14 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s still about a 1-in-3 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (33%, up from 32%)

  • There is now about a 7-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (35%, up from 33%)

  • There’s now Only about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (16%, down from 22%)