2026 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is just under the bookmakers’, and the game-by-game absolute differences range from 0.2 to 8.9 points.
Read More2026 - Round 20 : Confident
/This week we have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, and the rest expected to be decided by between about six and nine goals.
Seven games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 28.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 10 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 24.1 points per game, almost identical to last week’s average.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only six teams this week, flipping three pairs of teams including putting Geelong into 2nd ahead of Hawthorn.
MARS rerated eight teams, flipping four pairs, including moving Hawthorn into 3rd.
That left both Systems with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Read More2026 - Round 19 Results - And Exhale ...
/Only six of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, and that was the score recorded by all but two Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, which left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 121.5 from 162 (75%) and MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 118.5 (73%).
The two outlying scores were a seven from Consult the Ladder, and a three from Home Sweet Home.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 114.5 from 162 (71%).
Read More2026 - Round 19 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SunDAY 2:30PM
MoSHPlay has finished at Gold Coast by 2 goals.
UPDATE SATURDAY 12:30PM
MoSHPlay has finished at Fremantle by four goals.
UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay is sticking with Swans by 12 points and now has fresh preliminary views about the Sunday games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay is locking in Cats by 17 points and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Cats by 17 points.
2026 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is again the same as the bookmakers’, but the paths by which those averages have been reached are very different. In four of the nine games, MoSHBODS differs from the bookmakers by a goal or more.
Read More2026 - Round 19 : Not Fully Aligned
/This week we have five games expected to be decided by about two goals or less, three by about six to seven goals, and the last by just over eight goals.
Five games have away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 36.7 points per game, and four have a home team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 7.8 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.8 points per game, almost identical to last week’s average.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 18
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of nine teams this week, including moving Hawthorn into 2nd, dropping Geelong into 3rd, and dropping Sydney into 5th.
Further down the order, the big multi-spot movers were GWS (up 3 into 10th), and Carlton (down 3 into 13th, which makes it down 6 places in two weeks).
MARS rerated 10 teams, also moving the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Hawks.
Its multi-spot movers were Melbourne (down 2 into 5th), and Carlton (down 2 into 12th, which represents a slide of 5 places in two weeks).
Read More2026 - Round 18 Results - Positive
/Eight of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, and that was the score that every Head-to-Head Tipster recorded, which left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 115.5 from 153 (76%) and MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 112.5 (74%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 108.7 from 153 (71%).
Read More2026 - Round 18 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SUNDAY 4:15PM
MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 66 points.
UPDATE SUNDAY 3PM
MoSHPlay ends at Melbourne by 46 points.
UPDATE SUNDAY 12:45PM
MoSHPlay ends at Dogs by 33 points.
UPDATE FRIDAY 9:45PM
MoSHPlay has some updated preliminary views about the Sunday games.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:45PM
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Dockers by a goal and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 10:15PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is the Dockers by a goal.
2026 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is the same as the bookmakers’ or nearly so, and the largest difference for any single game is only 7 points.
Read More2026 - Round 18 : Time to Rebound
/Another nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, one by about six goals, one by just under seven goals, and the last by about 10 goals.
Seven of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 27.1 points per game, and two have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of just 11 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 23.5 points per game, about four points higher than last week’s average.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 17
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, including moving Sydney into 3rd ahead of the elevated Lions and the demoted Hawks, making its Top 3 now Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Further down the order, the multi-spot movers were Melbourne (up 3 into 6th), and Carlton (down 3 into 10th, despite winning).
MARS rerated only nine teams, also moving Sydney into 3rd ahead of an elevated Lions and demoted Hawks, making its Top 3 also Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney.
Its multi-spot movers, apart from Hawthorn were Melbourne (up 2 into 7th), Collingwood (up 3 into 9th), St Kilda (up 2 into 11th), Carlton (down 3 into 10th), Western Bulldogs (down 2 into 12th), and Gold Coast (down 2 into 13th).
Read More2026 - Round 17 Results - Could Be Worse, Could Be Better
/Just five of the nine early-week favourites secured the four points this round, which led to every Head-to-Head Tipster recording five from nine except Home Sweet Home, who managed only two.
That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still tied for first and now on 107.5 from 144 (75%) with MARS_Marg still in outright 3rd and back on 104.5.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 4.8 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 100.7 from 144 (70%).
Read More2026 - Round 17 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE SATURDAY 3:45PM
MoSHPlay has finished at Suns by 5 points
UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM
MoSHPlay has finished at Hawks by 27 points
UPDATE FRIDAY 10:30PM
MoSHPlay has updated preliminary forecasts for the Sunday games
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay has finished at the Cats by 12 points for tonight’s game and has preliminary views for the remainder of games in the round
UPDATE WEDNESDAY 10PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Cats by 12 points
2026 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders
/MoSHBODS’ average total this week is the same as the bookmakers’, but again the differences for individual games sit on either side of zero and are, in some cases, substantially different.
Read More2026 - Round 17 : A Lot More Action
/We’re spoiled with a return to a full round of nine games this week, with six expected to be decided by three goals or less, two by about four-and-a-half goals, and one by about six goals.
Five of them have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 13.1 points per game, and four have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 26.8 points. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 19.2 points per game, about one-point-and-a-half below last week’s average.
Read More2026 - Team Ratings After Round 16
/MoSHBODS changed the ranking of eight teams this week, but none in the top 2 or the bottom 4. One of the changes was to move Hawthorn ahead of Sydney into 3rd, making its Top 3 now Fremantle, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Further down the order, the only multi-spot mover was Port Adelaide (up 3 into 11th).
MARS rerated 12 teams to arrive at a Top 3 that matches MoSHBODS’.
Its multi-spot movers were Carlton (up 3 into 7th), and Gold Coast (down 4 into 11th).
Read More2026 - Round 16 Results - Not Without Merit
/For yet another week, six of the seven early-week favourites, but this time Bookie Knows Best, ENS_Linear, MARS_Marg and the MoS twins all recorded that score, bettered only by the still-last-placed Home Sweet Home.
That all meant that Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear retained their three tip lead over the field. They are now on 102.5 from 135 (76%) with MARS_Marg now in outright 3rd and back on 99.5.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.8 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 95.9 from 135 (71%).
Read More2026 - Round 16 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay has ended at Crows by 15 points
UPDATE 10:30PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay has an updated preliminary forecast for the final game of the round.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay’s is staying with Lions by 2 points for tonight’s game and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game is Lions by 2 points
