MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only two teams this week, dropping Adelaide into 8th below Carlton.
MARS reranked no teams at all and, very surprisingly, increased the Cats’ rating and decreased the Dockers’ despite the Cats’ 14-point loss. MARS sometimes moves in mysterious ways.
That left MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Sydney, Geelong, and Fremantle, and MARS with Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn.
Read MoreBoth favourites won this week and there were no contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters, so Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still lead RSMP_Simple by five tips and are now uncatchable.
Those leaders are now on 161.5 from 215 (75%) and the all-Tipster average score for the round was 2 from 2, taking the season-long figure to 152.2 from 215 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has preliminary views about the two Semi Finals
The bookmakers are, again, expecting considerably lower scores in the two finals this week than is MoSHBODS.
Read MoreThis week we have just two games, both with home team favourites, one expected to be won by about 10 points, and the other by about 3 goals.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 10 teams this week, including moving four teams by two places: Geelong up 2 into 2nd, Fremantle down 2 into 3rd, Brisbane Lions down 2 into 5th, and Carlton down 2 into 8th. It also moved Sydney up a spot into 1st.
MARS reranked six teams, including moving Geelong from 3rd to 1st, Hawthorn from 5th to 3rd, and Brisbane Lions from 1st to 4th.
That left MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Sydney, Geelong, and Fremantle, and MARS with Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn.
Read MoreTwo favourites won and two lost ithis week, but none of the Head-to-Head Tipsters predicted all four of those outcomes. Best were MARS_Marg, the MoS twins, Consult the Ladder, and the Home Sweet Home who all scored three.
That had no effect on the top of the Leaderboard where Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still lead RSMP_Simple by five tips, which means that, at worst, they can only now be equalled.
The leaders are now on 159.5 from 213 (75%) and the all-Tipster average score for the round was 2.6 from 4, taking the season-long figure to 150.2 from 213 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s has ended at Dockers by 9 points, and now has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Dockers by 9 points.
The bookmakers are expecting considerably lower scores in the four finals this week than is MoSHBODS, especially in the Swans v Lions game where the difference is almost 8 goals..
Read MoreThis week we have three games with home team favourites, but expected to be won by less than three goals, and a single game with an away team favourite expected to be won by over four goals.
When I say expected, I mean expected by the bookmakers, but the MoS and MARS family have other ideas, bereft as they are of player knowledge. It’s probably fair that the Lions should start favourites against the Swans, but four goals puts a huge impost on the missing players and I’m very much minded of the recent work I’ve been doing with Claude that suggests the importance of players over-and-above team is often overstated.
It will be fascinating to find out how true that is this week.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of just two teams this week, elevating Carlton into 6th at the expense of Melbourne.
MARS reranked four teams flipping Carlton into 6th to drop Adelaide to 7th, and dropping Collingwood into 11th behind GWS.
Thst left MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions, and MARS with Brisbane Lions, Sydney, and Geelong.
Read MoreOne favourite won and one lost in the inaugural Wildcard Round, which saw RSMP_Simple as the only Head-to-Head Tipster bagging two from two. That elevated it into fifth place, but left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still five tips in the lead atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, now on 157.5 from 209 (75%).
The all-Tipster average score came in at 0.8 from 2, taking the season-long figure to 147.6 from 209 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has preliminary views on both Wildcard Finals.
The bookmakers are expecting considerably lower scores in the two Wildcard Finals than is MoSHBODS, with the difference about 3 points in the Friday game and 13 points in the Saturday game.
Read MoreThis week we have the competition’s first-ever wildcard finals, a concept of which I’m not a fan. If about 56% of your teams are participating in your Finals series, I think you need to ponder harder on what you want winning the competition to mean.
The two wildcard games do look as though they’ll be close, but that’s something you should probably expect when only tams from 6th to 10th on the competition ladder are playing.
In the first game, the Pies are half-point favourites against the Dogs, the latter of which are the notional home team despite being forced to play at their opponent’s home ground. In the second, the Blues are two-and-a-half point favourites over the Dees.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of a startling 13 teams this week, including lifting Sydney into 2nd and Brisbane Lions into 3rd at the expense of Geelong.
The other multi-spot movers were Carlton (up into 7th) and Collingwood (down 2 into 9th).
MARS reranked 12 teams, including elevating Brisbane Lions by 3 places into 1st, dropping Fremantle 3 places into 4th, dropping Melbourne and St Kilda two spots each, and elevating Western Bulldogs by 3 places.
MoSHBODS finished with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions, while MARS has Brisbane Lions, Sydney, and Geelong.
Read MoreSix of the nine early-week favourites won this week, and with contrarian behaviour coming from only MARS_Marg and Home Sweet Home, all other Tipsters scored six while registered five and four respectively. That left Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear atop the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard, now on 156.5 from 207 (76%) and five tips clear only of RSMP_Weighted.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.7 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 146.8 from 207 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with the Lions by just one goal, and now has fresh preliminary views about some of the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Saints winning by 14 points and now has preliminary views about the remainder of games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow night’s game has the Saints winning by 14 points.
It’s been quite the week to be a football followers and punter. I’ll make no comment on the specifics of the Swans situation, but simply report the wagering market fact that the Swans have moved from about 5-goal favourites to 1-goal underdogs, as you’ll see in the table below.
As I type this there is no Totals market up on the TAB for the Swans’ game so I’ve just assumed it’s the same as the Sportsbet market.
With all that by way of background, MoSHBODS’ average total this week is almost a goal less than the bookmakers’, with differences in the 9 to 12 point range for three of the games. In only two of the games is the MoSHBODS projected total higher than the bookmakers’.
The average absolute difference between MoSHBODS’ and the TAB’s expected margins is 4.9 points per game and between MoSHBODS’ and Sportsbet’s expected margins is 5.0 points per game.
Read MoreThis week we have five games expected to be decided by about two to three goals, one game by about three-and-a-half goals, two games by about six to six-and-a-half goals, and the remaining game by about ten goals.
Five games have home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 28.7 points per game, and four have an away team favourite with an expected victory margin of 22.3 points per game. Across all nine games, the average expected margin is 25.8 points per game.
Again this week, a lack of knowledge about teams’ underlying motivations leaves us vulnerable as forecasters and punters.
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