MoSHPlay has finished with the Hawks winning by 14 points and has some minor updates to its preliminary forecasts for the Sunday games
MoSHPlay has finished with the Cats winning by 9 points and now has preliminary views on all but the Monday game
Mercifully, there’s no Hinge 4 in the Thursday night preliminary forecast that has the Cats winning by a sensible 9 points
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is again very close to the bookmakers’, but with sizeable differences in either direction on individual games ranging as high as 13 points in the first game of the round, where rain is expected. It’s also expected in the second game, but the difference there is smaller.
Read MoreWe’re being fed something a little closer to our regular diet this week as just two teams have the bye. Across the eight games five of them expected to be won by a single digit margin, and the other four by between three-and-a-half and four-and-a-half goals.
There are three home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 18.8 points per game, and five away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 13.7 points per game. Across all eight games, the average expected margin is 15.6 points per game..
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 10 teams this week, which included swapping 1st and 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and 5th and 6th, which left it with a Top 3 of Swans, Cats, and Hawks. The only multi-spot movers were Western Bulldogs up 2 into 9th, and St Kilda down 2 into 11th.
MARS moved only seven teams, and none in the Top 5. Its Top 3 then remains Cats, Swans, and Hawks. Its bir movers were GWS up 3 spots into 7th, and Melbourne down 4 spots into 12th.
Read MoreFour of the seven early-week favourites won this week, which meant that two-thirds of the Head-to-Head Tipsters scored exactly that, the exceptions being the MoSH twins’ three, and Consult The Ladders’ five.
Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear remain joint-leaders, now on 80 from 106 (75%), one tip ahead of MARS_Marg, and a further tip ahead of the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 3.9 from 7, taking the season-long figure to 75.5 from 106 (71%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has some updated, but still preliminary, views of the Sunday games.
(Some of you will have noticed - and a few of you have pointed it out online - that MoSHPlay has taken a particular liking for the Dees this week. The reason for the much-higher-than-expected estimated victory margin for Melbourne comes from understanding that MoSHPlay is a MARS model that comprises an intercept and 10 hinges that trigger given different ranges of the input variables and that each have a coefficient or multiplier than amplifies the difference between the threshold for the trigger’s firing and the actual. So, for example, if one hinge is h(Expected Margin - 10) that hinge will only trigger when the Expected Margin exceed 10 points. If that hinge carries a coefficient of 5 and the Expected Margin is 20, then the contribution of this hinge to the final margin forecast will be (20 - 10) x 5 = 50 points. If, instead, the Expected Margin is 5, that hinge will not trigger.
The variables used in MoSHPlay triggers are the MoSHBODS’ expected margin for the game, and the average of the ratings of the 22 best players for each team.
Two of the hinges carry quite large coefficients and tend to fire together and be somewhat offsetting. One of those hinges - the one with the largest coefficient - has historically only fired in 0.8% of games. It’s fired this week, along with the offsetting hinge, but the offseting has been somewhat minimal. As such, we initially had the Dees by 49 but now have them by “only” 33 points.
Whether this is a case of a game with outlying and/or unusual characteristics that is, accordingly, poorly estimated by the model, or a case of a genuine quirk identified by the model, only Sunday will tell.)
MoSHPlay’s has finished at Hawks by 11 points and has preliminary views of the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s initial view is Hawks by 11 points
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is again very close to the bookmakers’, but that’s something of an incidental outcome given that differences for individual games are as large as 21.5 points because, in that case, of forecast rain in the final game of the round.
Read MoreWe’re all on a League-enforced restricted diet of just seven games this week, with five of them expected to be won by about two goals or less, one by about three-and-a-half goals, and one by about ten-and-a-half goals.
There are five home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 17.3 points per game, and two away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 17.5 points per game. Across all seven games, the average expected margin is 17.4 points per game.
There are six home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 17.5 points per game, and three away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 12.2 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of nine teams this week, which included swapping Fremantle into 3rd ahead of Hawthorn, dropping Western Bulldogs down two places to 11th, dropping Port Adelaide down two places to 14th, and elevating GWS two places into 12th.
Its Top 3 are now Cats, Swans, and Dockers.
MARS moved 11 teams, with the only multi-spot movers being GWS up two into 10th, Brisbane Lions down three into 6th, and Collingwood down three into 11th. The Lions’ fall allowed the three teams below them to each rise by a spot, which moved Hawthorn into 3rd.
Its Top 3 then are now Cats, Swans, and Hawks.
Read MoreAgain only five early-week favourites won this week, which meant that two-thirds of the Head-to-Head Tipsters scored exactly that, the exceptions being MoSHPlay_Marg’s four, Consult The Ladders’ three, and Home Sweet Home’s eight.
Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear remain joint-leaders on 76 from 99 (76%), one tip ahead of MARS_Marg, and a further tip ahead of the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 71.6 from 99 (72%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has updated preliminary views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay has ended at Hawks by 17 points, and now has preliminary views on the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is the Hawks by 17 points.
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is about as close to the bookmakers’ as it has been all season, despite individual forecasts being over 10 points different in two of the nine games.
The Thursday Hawthorn v Adelaide game is particularly interesting as MoSHBODS is predicting a final Total more than two goals higher than the bookmakers', despite the weather forecast portending no precipitation.
Read MoreThis week’s nine games (and the last of nine game rounds until Round 17) includes seven that are expected to be decided by less than three goals, one that is expected to be decided by about three-and-a-half goals, and one more that is expected to be decided by just over seven goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is only 15.7 points per game.
There are six home favourites with an average expected victory margin of 17.5 points per game, and three away team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 12.2 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11 teams this week, which included swapping Geelong into 1st from 3rd, and Hawthorn into 3rd from 1st. The two other multi-spot moves were Adelaide up 3 places into 7th, and Western Bulldogs down 2 places into 9th.
Its Top 3 are now Cats, Swans, and Hawks.
MARS also moved 11 teams, with the only multi-spot movers being Melbourne up 2 into 9th, and Western Bulldogs down 3 into 10th.
Its Top 3 are now Cats, Swans, and Lions, with the Hawks in 4th.
Read MoreIn sharp contrast to last week where all nine favourites took the four points, this week only five of them did.
However, with Home Sweet Home the lone contrarian Head-to-Head Tipster, that meant little for the Leaderboard, which still sees Bookie Knows Best co-leading with ENS_Linear and now on 71 from 90 (78%), one tip ahead of MARS_Marg, and a further tip ahead of the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 5.2 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 66.6 from 90 (74%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is staying with Swans by 25 points but now has Suns by 28 points and has new preliminary views on the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay has preliminary views on the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay ends at Lions by 8 points.
MoSHPlay currently has it as Lions by 9 points in the Thursday game.
If MoSHBODS won’t go the bookmakers …
MoSHBODS’ average total this week is only two points below the bookmakers’, but that’s come about from the latter lowering their expectations to 181 points per game, down a full goal per game on last week. MoSHBODS is actually forecasting a higher score than the bookmakers in three games, albeit that two of those might be slightly rain-affected.
Read MoreThis week’s nine games includes four that are expected to be decided by about 20 points or less, three more that are expected to be decided by between about 20 and 30 points, and two more that are expected to be decided by about six or seven goals. Combined, the average expected margin per game is 26.1 points per game.
There are only four away favourites with an average expected victory margin of 25 points per game, and five home team favourites with an average expected victory margin of 26.9 points per game.
Read MoreMoSHBODS changed the ranking of just six teams this week, all of them in the top half, which left it with a Top 3 of Hawthorn, Sydney, and Geelong. Geelong, who rose two places, were the only team to move by more than a single spot.
MARS moved 10 teams, including four by two spots, and finished with a Top 3 of Sydney, Geelong, and Hawthorn.
Read MoreAlthough, by definition, it is always the most likely single outcome, it is nevertheless very unlikely that all nine early-week pre-game favourites are successful, but that is what we saw this week. Roughly, based on the TAB bookmaker’s own estimates, the pre-round probability of this was about 4.4% or 1 in 23.
That result was, of course, good for Bookie Knows Best, which remains co-leader of the Head-to-Head Tipsters with ENS_Linear and now on 66 from 81 (81%). They are one tip ahead of MARS_Marg, and a further tip ahead of the RSMP twins.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.9 from 9, taking the season-long figure to 61.4 from 81 (76%).
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