MoSSBODS left the team ordering unchanged and MoSHBODS swapped only Essendon and North Melbourne into 16th and 15th respectively, which left MoSSBODS at the end of the home and away season with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Hawks.
Read MoreOne game, one predictable emphatic winner.
MoSHPlay_Marg therefore finishes the home and away season two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best, and a further three tips clear of ENS_Linear.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 1 from 1, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 146.1 from 207 (71%). That’s quite a predictable season.
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Suns by 51 points.
There’s only one game this week, and the MoS twins have very different views about its scoring potential compared to the bookmakers.
Read MoreJust the much unanticipated Gold Coast v Essendon game this week, which is expected to be won by around 10 goals by most respected forecasters.
Read MoreMoSSBODS and MoSHBODS moved only four teams this week, MoSSBODS swapping the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Pies, and the Roos into 16th ahead of the Tigers, and MoSHBODS swapping Hawthorn into 3rd ahead of Adelaide, and the Swans into 11th ahead of Carlton.
That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Hawks.
It’s very likely, therefore, that the team rated highest at the end of the home-and-away season by both Systems, will miss Finals.
Read MoreOnce again, seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which meant that all but Home Sweet Home (four) recorded that score.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.7 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 145.1 from 206 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has amended but still preliminary views about the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Gold Coast by 26 points.
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay has finished at Carlton by 23 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Carlton by 22 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is another small 1.7 points per game, and there are only two games where the difference exceeds 3 points. Overall, the twins have roughly the same average expected total, and that average is 4 points below the bookmakers’.
Read MoreOnly one game is expected to be close this week - Lions v Hawks, where the expected margin is 9 points - while the remainder are expected to be won by between 20 and 60 points.
To give the full details, one game is expected to be won by 9 points, six by between 20 and 30 points, one by 40 points, and one more by 60 points.
That of course augurs particularly poorly for contrarianism …
Read MoreMoSSBODS moved seven teams this week, while MoSHBODS moved nine, though both, interestingly, increased the Pies’ Combined Rating and decreased the Crows’, despite the Crows winning 59 to 56.
The reason, of course, is because the Pies generated 2 more Scoring Shots and entered the contest lower rated than the Crows.
On MoSSBODS that saw Collingwood move into 3rd and Adelaide into 6th, allowing the Lions and Hawks to climb a spot each into 4th and 5th respectively. Further down, Fremantle and Melbourne swapped 8th and 9th, and GWS and Sydney swapped 10th and 11th.
On MoSHBODS, Collingwood and Adelaide retained their pre-round rankings of 6th and 3rd respectively, and the Lions jumped two places into 5th. The only other multi-spot movers were Gold Coast, down two spots into 7th, and GWS, up two spots into 8th.
The only agreement between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS towards the top then is Dogs in 1st and Cats in 2nd.
Read MoreSeven of the nine early-week favourites were again successful this weekend, which meant that all but MoSSBODS_Marg (six), Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder (five) were handsomely rewarded for their conservatism.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.4 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 138.4 from 197 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has finished at Cats by 17 points
MoSHPlay has finished at Hawthorn by 11 points
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about the full round
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a small 1.5 points per game, and there is only one game where the difference exceeds 3 points. Overall, the twins have roughly the same average expected total, and that average is 3 to 4 points below the bookmakers’.
Read MoreSave for the last game of the round, which looks likely to make a strong case for a mercy rule in AFL, it’s a fairly good looking set of games on offer this week. Six are expected to be won by around 3 goals or less, and two more by around 4 goals, which you think might provide some forecasters with an opportunity to be bold contrarians.
Let’s see.
Read MoreMoSSBODS moved only two teams this week, swapping GWS into 11th at the expense of Carlton, while MoSHBODS moved eight teams, which included moving Geelong into 2nd and slipping Adelaide into third, thereby aligning the two Systems’ Top 3 as Dogs, Cats, and Crows.
The multi-spot movers on MoSHBODS were Collingwood and Brisbane Lions, both slipping two spots, and Hawthorn, climbing three spots.
Read MoreIn a season where favouritism has been particularly predictive, it’s not surprising that seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled with the continued low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of seven, excepting Home Sweet Home’s three.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 131.9 from 188 (70%).
Read MoreJust a quick MoSHPlay update for the Lions v Swans game (since it turns out that Tom Doedee is not a debutant - he’s just been missing for a while).
No other changes, including for tonight’s game.
MoSHPlay is sticking with Pies by 3 points and now has preliminary opinions about the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay is currently on Pies by 3 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a relatively small 1.7 points per game, and there are only two games where the difference exceeds 3.5 points. Overall, the twins have the same average expected total, and that average is 3 points below the bookmakers’.
Read MoreIt’s a sad looking nine games this week, with only one expected to finish with a single-digit margin, five expected to finish with a margin in the 20s, and the remaining three expected to finish with roughly 8, 10, and 11-goal margins.
Forecasting will be mostly about the margins then.
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