2025 - Round 27 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE THURSDAY 11:30PM
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about the two games this weekend
2025 - Round 27 : Overs/Unders
/Two games again this week, and some non-trivial differences of opinion about likely Totals, including a five-point difference between the MoS twins for the Pies v Lions game and 7.5- to 12.5-point differences between the MoS twins and the bookmakers for the Cats v Hawks.
Read More2025 - Round 27 : 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 8th
/Historically since 2000, Week 3 2nd v 8th clashes have gone 1-0 in favour of the team from 2nd, and the more common 3rd v 4th clashes have gone 8-2 in favour of the team from 3rd.
More generally, teams from 2nd on the ladder have seen themselves playing in Week 3 in 23 of the 25 previous seasons, winning 13 and losing 10, with eight of those 10 losses coming in games against the minor premier.
Teams from 3rd have participated 20 times, winning 12 and losing eight (five of them to minor premiers), while teams from 4th have been there 19 times for just three wins, and teams from 8th have been there only once previously for a loss.
The dire record of teams finishing 4th on the ladder is perplexing - they even have losing (if short) records against teams from 6th and 7th on the ladder.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 26 (Week 2 of the Finals)
/MoSSBODS left all teams in the same order and MoSHBODS just switched the Lions into 4th ahead of the Pies, which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.
Read More2025 - Round 26 Results (Finals Week 2) - One of Each
/Whilst 8th on the ladder defeating 1st might’ve been a huge surprise in previous seasons, it was perhaps less so this season as the two teams entered their semi-final with Hawthorn ranked 3rd by MoSHBODS and Adelaide 7th and with the Crows’ favouritism coming solely from the putative advantage that the game’s venue was meant to confer.
In the other game, the Lions and Suns entered their match ranked 5th (Brisbane Lions) and 6th (Gold Coast) with essentially equal MoSHBODS Ratings, but with the Lions enjoying the venue performance advantage. Their victory was therefore much less of a surprise, although the margin larger than expected.
Read More2025 - Round 26 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 7 points.
UPDATE THURSDAY 7:15PM
MoSHPlay has some preliminary thoughts on the two semi-finals (but not even semi thoughts on the preliminary finals)
2025 - Round 26 : Overs/Unders
/Just the two games this week, and not much to separate the four sets of forecasts.
Read More2025 - Round 26 : 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 8th
/The bookmakers have both of this weeks’ games as close-run things, though still have both home teams as favourites.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 25 (Week 1 of the Finals)
/MoSSBODS swapped Collingwood into 3rd ahead of Brisbane Lions, and Sydney into 10th ahead of GWS, while MoSHBODS swapped Geelong into 1st ahead of Western Bulldogs, and moved Collingwood into 4th, Gold Coast into 6th, Adelaide into 7th, Fremantle into 8th, and GWS into 9th.
All of which left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Pies, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Dogs, and Hawks.
Read More2025 - Round 25 Results (Finals Week 1) - Cat Friendly
/It’s been a while since the teams in 2nd, 4th, 7th and 8th prevailed in the first week of the men’s Finals - about 19 years if my data is correct.
Read More2025 - Round 25 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 7:30pm THURSDAY
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Crows by 2 goals as its final forecast, and now also has preliminary views about the remainder of the round.
UPDATE 10:15pm wedNESDAY
MoSHPlay is preliminarily opting for the Crows by 2 goals.
2025 - Round 25 : Overs/Unders
/There are four games this week, and the MoS twins have relatively similar views about the likely total scores in all of them, differing by no more than a couple of points in any single game.
With the notable exception of the Cats v Lions game, the bookmakers’ views are not all that different either.
Read More2025 - Round 25 : Clutch
/If the bookmakers are right, all four of the weekend Finals should be close, albeit that the home teams should win all four.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 24.1
/MoSSBODS left the team ordering unchanged and MoSHBODS swapped only Essendon and North Melbourne into 16th and 15th respectively, which left MoSSBODS at the end of the home and away season with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Hawks.
Read More2025 - Round 24.1 Results - Nothing Much
/One game, one predictable emphatic winner.
MoSHPlay_Marg therefore finishes the home and away season two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best, and a further three tips clear of ENS_Linear.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 1 from 1, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 146.1 from 207 (71%). That’s quite a predictable season.
Read More2025 - Round 24.1 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE TUESDAY 7PM
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Suns by 51 points.
2025 - Round 24.1 : Overs/Unders
/There’s only one game this week, and the MoS twins have very different views about its scoring potential compared to the bookmakers.
Read More2025 - Round 24.1: Not With a Bang ...
/Just the much unanticipated Gold Coast v Essendon game this week, which is expected to be won by around 10 goals by most respected forecasters.
Read More2025 - Team Ratings After Round 24
/MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS moved only four teams this week, MoSSBODS swapping the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Pies, and the Roos into 16th ahead of the Tigers, and MoSHBODS swapping Hawthorn into 3rd ahead of Adelaide, and the Swans into 11th ahead of Carlton.
That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Cats, and Hawks.
It’s very likely, therefore, that the team rated highest at the end of the home-and-away season by both Systems, will miss Finals.
Read More2025 - Round 24 Results - Ups and Downs
/Once again, seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which meant that all but Home Sweet Home (four) recorded that score.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.7 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 145.1 from 206 (70%).
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