The MoS twins have some quite large differences of opinion about likely scoring for a number of games in Round 8, with three differences in the five to seven point range. On average across the nine games, both MoS models are forecasting lower totals than both bookmakers, although this week the difference is only one or two points per game.
Read MoreMoSSBODS re-ranked 11 teams this week, but none of the Top 3, and only Carlton (up 2 to 5th), Geelong (down 2 to 6th), Gold Coast (up 3 to 8th) and GWS (down 2 to 11th) by more than a single spot. MoSHBODS moved the same number of teams as MoSSBODS, and also moved four of them by multi-spots: Lions up 2 to 5th, Blues up 2 into 3rd; Geelong down 2 into 5th, and GWS down 2 into 8th.
That all left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Blues.
Read MoreSeven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by three goals or less, an eighth by just over three goals, and only the ninth by a more comfortable margin of eight goals.
I will, therefore, by very surprised if MoSHPlay repeats its Round 7 heroics of tipping all nine winners.
Let’s see what the other models make of it all for now.
Read MoreSeven of the early-week favourites got up this week, but only three of the Head-to-Head Predictors registered that score. MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the two successful underdogs to finish with a perfect score, while the two other MoS Predictors landed eights. Worst was Consult the Ladder’s five, just ahead of the RSMP twins’ sixes.
MoSHPlay now finds itself four tips clear of the field on 50 from 62 (81%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 7 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 42.8 from 62 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has made some small adjustments to its preliminary Sunday forecasts.
MoSHPlay is staying with Dees by 16 points tonight, but also now has some preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game have the Dees winning by 16 points.
Just for a little variety, this week the Totals markets went up in three tranches across about 75 minutes on Tuesday, at the end of which we find the MoS twins once again more bearish about scoring in almost every game than are the bookmakers.
Those two bookmakers are, on average, forecasting Totals about 4 points higher than the twins, albeit that the twins themselves again have some disagreements on individual games, which this week only are as large as 5 points and mostly are around 1 to 3 points.
Read MoreNine more games this week, with five of them expected to be decided by about two goals or less, two of them by around four or five goals, one by around six goals, and one more by around nine goals.
Those larger expected margins will hopefully make head-to-head tipping a little easier than last week.
Let’s see what the models make of it all.
Read MoreMoSSBODS made mostly single-spot re-rankings this week, although it did move over half the teams, the only multi-spot mover being Port Adelaide down 2 into 8th. MoSHBODS, while moving the same number of teams as MoSSBODS, moved four of them by multi-spots, including Western Bulldogs up 5 into 2nd, Brisbane Lions down 4 into 7th, Carlton up 4 into 5th, and Gold Coast down 2 into 8th.
Read MoreOnly four of the early-week favourites got up this week, leading to most Head-to-Head Predictors registering that score, the exceptions being MoSHPlay_Marg and Home Sweet Home with five, and Consult the Ladder with just two. That left MoSHPlay now two tips clear of the field on 41 from 53 (77%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 4 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 35.8 from 53 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay, finally given the data it needs to come up with a preliminary view, has the Cats winning by 3 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 6 points.
MoSHPlay has preliminary views about all bu the Monday game and they’re mostly similar to MoSHBODS’ although 7 points better for Essendon over West Coast, and 8 points better for Gold Coast over Richmond.
MoSHPlay has finished at the Lions by 14 points after making a small adjustment that moved the rounded value up by a point.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game have the Lions winning by 13 points.
Back to mid-morning and mid-afternoon wagering this week in the Totals markets where we find the MoS twins far more bearish about scoring in a number of games than are the bookmakers.
The two bookmakers are, on average, about 5 to 6 points higher than the twins, albeit that the twins themselves have some disagreements on individual games that are as large as 6 points.
Read MoreThere were some mostly gentle re-rankings on the MoS twins this week, with, on the increasingly-unreliable MoSSBODS, Fremantle climbing three spots into 9th, and Sydney, Gold Coast and St KIlda all falling two spots.
On MoSHBODS, Sydney fell four places, Hawthorn three, and Western Bulldogs and St Kilda two. Meantime, Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, GWS and Gold Coast all rose by two spots.
Read MoreAnother feast of nine-games this week, and played in a variety of States just to add some more colour to the mix.
Seven of the nine games are expected to be won by less than three goals, one by about four-and-a-half goals, and the remaining game by just over seven goals, which should again make head-to-head tipping quite challenging this week.
Let’s see what the models make of the nine.
Read MoreAnother seven of the early-week favourites got up this week, leading to all but ENS_Linear and Home Sweet Home registering that score on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard. That left MoSHPlay still a tip clear of the field on 36 from 44 (82%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 6.4 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 31.8 from 44 (72%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay now has some preliminary thoughts about the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay’s ends with the Crows winning by 10 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game has the Crows winning by 9 points.
A full set of Totals markets have gone up very early this week and, consistent with MoS philosophy, we’ve wagered in these markets as soon as possible.
MoSSBODS this week disagrees with MoSHBODS on the Total for every game by amounts ranging from 1 point to 8 points. On average, however, across all nine games, MoSSBODS is one point higher than MoSHBODS.
The two bookmakers are, on average, about 4 points higher than MoSSBODS.
Read MoreWith every team now having played at least three games, it feels an appropriate time to look at how the various MoS Team Rating Systems view the teams.
One thing to bear in mind this season is that MoSSBODS has been optimised to produce better game total forecasts, which will, in my experience, necessarily lessen its ability to forecast game margins well. It will also lead, as we’ll see, to quite different assessments of the 18 teams. In short, don’t expect the extremely high levels of correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS that we’ve grown used to in recent years.
That difference can be seen immediately when we look at the two System’s team ratings at the end of Round 4.
Read MoreWe have only our second nine-game round this week, and it feels as though it signals the end of the first portion of the season, after which we’ll have some reasonable ideas about the most likely and most unlikely Finalists.
Two-thirds of the nine games are expected to be won by less than three goals, one by four goals, another by about five goals, and the remaining game by about five-and-a-half goals. All of which you might expect to make head-to-head tipping quite challenging.
Let’s see what the models make of the new nine.
Read MoreRound 4 was another entirely acceptable round, with seven of the early-week favourites getting up, leading to MoSHPlay, Bookie Knows Best, the RSMP twins, and ENS_Linear all registering that score on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard.
That left MoSHPlay a tip clear of the field on 29 from 35 (83%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 6.4 from 8, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 25.3 from 35 (72%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is staying with the Cats by just over 6 goals, and has some slightly altered ideas about some of the Sunday games.
MoSHPlay is staying with the Pies by a goal for tonight and now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game has the Pies winning by 6 points.
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