2026 - Overs/Unders Final

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The final week saw the two bookmakers jointly take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for all four metrics. That allowed the TAB to retake the season-long lead on Home Team Scores meaning that it finished first on Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet finished first on Away Team Scores and Game Totals.

The final leads were as follows:

  • Game Margins: TAB 1 point ahead of Sportsbet and 27 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 11 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 7 points ahead of the TAB, and 81 points ahead of MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 232 points ahead of MoSHBODS

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2026 - Round 29 Results - Can't Complain

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The contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters - the MoS twins, Bookie Knows Best and Consult the Ladder - were ultimately unsuccessful this week, but only after the Lions staged an astonishing comeback after my in-running model had the Dockers as about 98% chances to win with only a few minutes remaining.

That all left Bookie Knows Best as the season leader on 164.5 from 218 (76%), one tip ahead of ENS_Linear and six ahead of RSMP_Weighted.

The all-Tipster average score for the round was 0.6 from 1, finalising the season-long figure at 153.7 from 218 (71%).

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 28 (Week 5 of the Finals)

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of all four Preliminary Finalists this week, lifting Fremantle into 1st and Brisbane Lions into 4th, and dropping Sydney into 3rd and Hawthorn into 5th.

MARS swapped only Brisbane Lions and Sydney, elevating the former into 2nd and dropping the latter into 4th.

That left MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Fremantle, Geelong, and Sydney, and MARS with Geelong, Brisbane Lions, and Hawthorn.

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2026 - Round 28 Results - Glass Half Full?

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Both favourites won again this week, but both found their own unique ways to make it difficult. Such was the level of contrarian head-to-head tipping that only Bookie Knows Best and Consult the Ladder tipped both results, with five other Tipsters snagging just one, and MARS_Marg and Home Sweet Home snagging none.

That all left Bookie Knows Best is the outright lead on 163.5 from 217 (75%), one tip ahead of ENS_Linear and six ahead of RSMP_Weighted.

The all-Tipster average score for the round was 1 from 2, taking the season-long figure to 153.2 from 217 (71%).

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 27 (Week 3 of the Finals)

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of only two teams this week, dropping Adelaide into 8th below Carlton.

MARS reranked no teams at all and, very surprisingly, increased the Cats’ rating and decreased the Dockers’ despite the Cats’ 14-point loss. MARS sometimes moves in mysterious ways.

That left MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Sydney, Geelong, and Fremantle, and MARS with Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn.

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2026 - Team Ratings After Round 26 (Week 2 of the Finals)

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MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 10 teams this week, including moving four teams by two places: Geelong up 2 into 2nd, Fremantle down 2 into 3rd, Brisbane Lions down 2 into 5th, and Carlton down 2 into 8th. It also moved Sydney up a spot into 1st.

MARS reranked six teams, including moving Geelong from 3rd to 1st, Hawthorn from 5th to 3rd, and Brisbane Lions from 1st to 4th.

That left MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Sydney, Geelong, and Fremantle, and MARS with Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn.

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2026 - Round 26 Results - Reduced to a Trickle

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Two favourites won and two lost ithis week, but none of the Head-to-Head Tipsters predicted all four of those outcomes. Best were MARS_Marg, the MoS twins, Consult the Ladder, and the Home Sweet Home who all scored three.

That had no effect on the top of the Leaderboard where Bookie Knows Best and ENS_Linear still lead RSMP_Simple by five tips, which means that, at worst, they can only now be equalled.

The leaders are now on 159.5 from 213 (75%) and the all-Tipster average score for the round was 2.6 from 4, taking the season-long figure to 150.2 from 213 (71%).

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2026 - Round 26 (Finals Week 2) : The Official Eight

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This week we have three games with home team favourites, but expected to be won by less than three goals, and a single game with an away team favourite expected to be won by over four goals.

When I say expected, I mean expected by the bookmakers, but the MoS and MARS family have other ideas, bereft as they are of player knowledge. It’s probably fair that the Lions should start favourites against the Swans, but four goals puts a huge impost on the missing players and I’m very much minded of the recent work I’ve been doing with Claude that suggests the importance of players over-and-above team is often overstated.

It will be fascinating to find out how true that is this week.

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