2025 - Round 13 Results - Not Lucky
/SIx of the eight early-week favourites got up this weekend, and, with minimal contrarianism once again, registered scores were mostly that number with the exceptions being Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder who both scored only four.
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 84.5 from 113 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 75.7 from 113 (67%).
Margin prediction was, on average, almost 20 points per game easier this week, but easiest for MoSSBODS_Marg (sic), whose mean average error (MAE) of 16.4 points per game was about three-quarters of a point per game better than next best, RSMP_Weighted’s 17.1 points per game. MoSHPlay_Marg recorded the worst MAE of 21.2 points per game, and now sits in 7th.
The all-Predictor average was 18 points per game, which moved the season-long average to 27.3 points per game.
The round-by-round history of Margin Predictor rankings appears below.
Log probability scores were all marginally positive and very similar for all forecasters this week, but slightly better for MoSSBODS_Prob and MoSHBODS_Prob.
MoSHPlay_Prob still sits atop the Leaderboard, MoSHBODS_Prob in second, and now MoSSBODS_Prob in third.
WAGERING
It was the Head-to-Head Fund’s turn to be the only profitable one this week, but its gains were insufficient to outweigh the losses by the Line Fund.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished down for the fifth successive round, this time by 3.9c, leaving it up by just under 12c on the season, that from a 19% ROI on a 1.17 turn.
