AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 6

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This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Adelaide: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 40-60% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton and Geelong: about 85% chance of being finalists; around 25-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 60% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle, Collingwood, and St Kilda: around 15-30% chances of being finalists; around 1% to <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. West Coast, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon, GWS, Richmond, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 7

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According to the bookmakers, Round 7 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Six games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by between about 34 and 38 points

  • One game expected to be decided by about 50 points..

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees just one underdog (Port Adelaide) winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 18 points, while WoSHBODS’ is about 23 points per game.

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AFLW 2025 - Round 6 Results - Chipping Away

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WoSHBODS tipped only favourites this week, and so ended up with 8 from 9 correct selections, mirroring the bookmakers.

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of just 18.4 points per game (compared to 19.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 8.9 points per game (compared to 9.6 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +2.2 bits compares to +2.4 and +2.5 bits for the bookmakers.

All told then, a very acceptable round.

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AFLW 2025 - Round 6 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 11:45AM SATURDAY

There are forecasts of “possible showers” and “medium chance of showers” in Melbourne and Adelaide, but they don’t sound like enough to preclude WoSHBODS from taking overs at Victoria Park and Alberton Oval.

Accordingly, it has taken:

  • Collingwood v Hawthorn: 0.9% o65.5 @ $1.87 (estimated overlay 3.9 points)

  • Port Adelaide v Geelong: 4.3% o77.5 @ $1.85 (estimated overlay 14.5 points)

  • Collingwood v Hawthorn: 0.5% o74.5 @ $1.87 (estimated overlay 3 points)

UPDATE 12 NOON SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Sydney v GWS: 0.3% o90.5 @ $1.85 (estimated overlay 3.1 points)

It passed on taking o71.5 in the Melbourne v West Coast game due to a forecast of “showers” (rather than “possible showers”)

AFLW 2025 - Round 6

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According to the bookmakers, Round 6 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • Four games expected to be decided by between about four-and-a-half and just over six goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees all nine favourites winning.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 22 points, while WoSHBODS’ is just under 25 points per game.

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 5

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This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Adelaide: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 40-55% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney, Carlton, and Geelong: about 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 20-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Collingwood and West Coast: around 15-25% chances of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: around 5-15% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Essendon: around 2% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Richmond, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 5 Results - Right Sign

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WoSHBODS, like the TAB, tipped only four from nine winners this week, while Sportsbet managed five.

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of just 25.3 points per game (compared to 24.9 and 25.2 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 12.6 points per game (compared to 16.9 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of -2.4 bits compares to -2.4 and -2.5 bits for the bookmakers.

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AFLW 2025 - Round 5 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 11:15AM SUNDAY

WoSHPlay has taken:

  • Essendon v St Kilda: u80.5 for 0.1% @ $1.85

  • Brisbane v North Melbourne: u92.5 for 3.8% @ $1.87

UPDATE 11:30AM SATURDAY

WoSHPlay has taken:

  • Collingwood v Sydney: o74.5 for 3% @ $1.87

  • Carlton v Gold Coast: o86.5 for 0.6% @ $1.87

  • GWS v Western Bulldogs: u83.5 for 1.3% @ $1.87

(There is a chance of rain in the Collingwood game, which might explain why the line dropped 5 points in about 10 minutes after being originally posted at 79.5)

AFLW 2025 - Round 5

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According to the bookmakers, Round 5 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Three games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between three-and-a-half and just over four goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes one underdog win (Hawthorn) and one maybe underdog win depending on who you talk to (Fremantle).

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 14.4 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 17.7 points per game.

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 4

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This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Sydney and Hawthorn: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane: about 95% chance of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton, Adelaide and Geelong: about 65-75% chance of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, Essendon, and Western Bulldogs: around 20-30% chances of being finalists; around 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, and St Kilda: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Richmond, Gold Coast, and GWS: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 4 Results - It's a Grind

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WoSHBODS tipped seven from nine winners again this week, which was again one better than the bookmakers. It also recorded a Margin MAE of just 9.8 points per game (compared to 12.1 and 12.3 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 24.7 points per game (compared to 22.1 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of 2.9 bits per game compares to 3.3 bits per game for the bookmakers.

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AFLW 2025 - Round 4 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • North Melbourne v Collingwood: 3.9% u83.5 @ $1.85

(WoSHBODS would have taken the overs in the Essendon and West Coast games, but showers are forecast)

UPDATE 10:30AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Gold Coast v GWS: 4.1% o78.5 @ $1.87 (there is a medium chance of showers forecast for the Gold Coast, but they are considered to be ‘less likely in the afternoon’)

AFLW 2025 - Round 4

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According to the bookmakers, Round 4 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Four games expected to be decided by less than a goal

  • Two games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by just over four goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just under eight goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes one underdog win (Brisbane) and one maybe underdog win depending on who you talk to (Port Adelaide).

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 16.3 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 19.3 points per game.

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 3

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This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide and Brisbane: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton: about 70% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Essendon, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong: around 40-45% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 15-25% chances of being finalists; around 2-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, and Richmond: around 2-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. GWS and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 3 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 11:45AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS sees value in all three of today’s games and has taken:

  • Collingwood v Melbourne: 3.2% u84.5 $1.90

  • Fremantle v North Melbourne: 3% u81.5 $1.87

  • Brisbane v Carlton: 0.4% o79.5 $1.87

UPDATE 11:45AM SATURDAY

There are forecasts for rain in a number of the Melbourne-based games today, but that rain seems likely to have cleared by game time, so WoSHBODS has taken the overs in those games. It’s also taken the overs in the Adelaide game, and the unders in the Sydney game:

  • GWS v Adelaide: 1.9% u89.5 $1.85

  • St Kilda v West Coast: 0.3% o68.5 $1.87

  • Geelong v Sydney: 1.4% o83.5 $1.90

  • Port Adelaide v Gold Coast: 1.2% o80.5 $1.87

  • Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn: 2.7% o70.5 $1.87

UPDATE 1:40PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Richmond v Essendon: 1.8% o72.5 $1.90

AFLW 2025 - Round 3

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Round 3 of the AFLW looks a lot less competitive than Round 2, with the early markets for three games suggesting that their final game margin will be under two goals, two more games expected to finish with a margin in the two to four goal range, and the remaining four games expected to finish with a margin of over four goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (Sydney).

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 20.8 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 25.4 points per game.

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 2

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This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 45-65% chances of Top 4; roughly 4-8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; around 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Geelong and Essendon: 45-50% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Carlton, and St Kilda: 25-30% chances of being finalists; around 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 10-15% chance of being finalists; <1-1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Collingwood, Richmond, and GWS: around 2-3% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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