AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 1

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This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 65-70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane: roughly 97% chances of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: 75-85% chances of being finalists; around 35-50% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney and Western Bulldogs: around 55-65% chance of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Richmond, Adelaide, Geelong, and Fremantle: around 30-45% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS, Hawthorn, and West Coast: around 20% chance of being finalists; around 3-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda, Collingwood, Essendon, and Gold Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <0.5%-1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026- Round 1 Results - Fine Start and Finish

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WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, but the bookmakers tipped all 9.

They were out-forecast by WoSHBODS on margin tipping, however, as WoSHBODS registered a Margin MAE of 18.6 points per game compared to their 21.3 points per game.

The bookmakers were better on Totals forecasting with Totals MAE of 29.6 and 30.5 points per game compared to WoSHBODS’ 33.2 points per game.

WoSHBODS LPS of +2.32 bits compares to +0.24 bits for the two bookmakers.

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AFLW 2026 - Round 1 - Unders/Overs

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UpDATE 11AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Essendon v Brisbane: 5.4% u93.5 @ $1.87

  • Adelaide v Sydney: 3.5% u93.5 @ $1.87

  • Fremantle v Port Adelaide: 0.8% u88.5 @ $1.87

  • GWS v West Coast: 1.1% o74.5 @ $1.85

UpDATE 10:30AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • North Melbourne v Geelong: 5.8% u95.5 @ $1.85

  • Richmond v Collingwood: 2.1% u80.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 12NOON THURSDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Hawthorn v Melbourne: 0.6% u85.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 3PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • St Kilda v Carlton: 2.1% o75.5 @ $1.87

AFLW 2026 - Round 1

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The staggering of games in Round 1 of the AFLW season sees the first game being played on Sunday, the second four days later, and the remainder two or three days after that. As such, currently there are only markets available for the first game and they see Carlton winning by about 4 points.

WoSHBODS, however, has thoughts about all nine games of the round, which include forecast wins by five away teams and four home teams.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 4 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

  • Over 4 goals: 1 game

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AFLW 2026 - Simulations Before Round 1

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This year’s pre Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are pre-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: about 98% chances of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane and Melbourne: 80-85% chances of being finalists; around 50-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Geelong, and Carlton: 60-65% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, and Sydney: around 40-55% chance of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. West Coast, Essendon, Collingwood, Hawthorn, St Kilda, and Richmond: around 20-35% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Gold Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 15 Results - Regression Free

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WoSHBODS and the two bookmakers tipped both winners this week.

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 16.2 points per game (compared to 21 and 20.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of just 3.3 points per game (compared to 8.2 points per game and 8.0 for the two bookmakers).

The LPS of +1.6 bits compares to +1.3 bits for the two bookmakers.

It’s truly been about as good a performance from WoSHBODS as I could have hoped for.

Overall, it’s now at 72% accuracy for the season, 22.3 Game Margin MAE, 16.2 Totals MAE, and +26.9 LPS.

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AFLW 2025 - Round 13 - Unders/Overs

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UpDATE 10:35AM SUNDAY

Sportsbet has now posted markets for the two games today, including a line of 81.5 for the Adelaide v St Kilda game. WoSHBODS has therefore topped up its unders wager by now adding:

  • Adelaide v St Kilda: 0.6% u81.5 @ $1.85

The forecast rain is keeping us out of the market in the Melbourne v Brisbane game.

UpDATE 3PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Adelaide v St Kilda: 0.2% u79.5 @ $1.87

It passed on overs bets on North Melbourne v Hawthorn yesterday, and Carlton v West Coast today because of forecast rain. Currently, the line for the latter game is 52.5 points, which represents an estimated overlay of 27 points according to WoSHBODS’ number. That would have justified an 8% wager. I can only assume that it is - and probably has been - raining heavily in Melbourne.

Note that Sportsbet has no Totals markets up for today’s or tomorrow’s games, and TAB has none up for Melbourne v Brisbane tomorrow.

AFLW 2025 - Round 13 - Week 1 of the Finals

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According to the bookmakers, the first week of the AFLW Finals comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • One game expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about six-and-a-half goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the four games of the round, which sees three favourites winning, all of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers. The one forecast underdog winner is Melbourne (over Brisbane) and they are forecast to win by less than a point.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 16.8 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 20.4 points per game.

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 12

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This year’s post Round 12 simulations of the Finals are summarised below.

North Melbourne remain prohibitive favourites at unprecedented levels, with Brisbane the only other team with a double-digit probability of winning the Grand Final.

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

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