AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 8

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This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 95% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton: virtually certain of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 10-20% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Hawthorn: roughly 65% chances of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Port Adelaide, and West Coast: around 10-20% chance of being finalists; < 0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Richmond, Adelaide, and Brisbane: around 5% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Collingwood, Essendon, GWS, and St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026 - Round 8

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WoSHBODS is forecasting five home team wins and four away wins this week, with all nine of them favourites with the bookmakers.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 2 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

  • Over 4 goals: 3 games

The average expected absolute margin is 20.8 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 16.5 points per game according to the bookmakers.

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AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 7

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This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 97% chances of Top 4; roughly 8% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: roughly 99% chances of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 55-60% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 35% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs: roughly 85% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Gold Coast and Hawthorn: roughly 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Fremantle: around 50% chance of being finalists; around 3% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Brisbane: around 25% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. Adelaide, Richmond, Port Adelaide, and West Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. Collingwood, GWS, Essendon, and St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026- Round 7 Results - A Little Healing

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WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, as did the bookmakers.

Its Margin MAE was 17.9 points per game, compared to 18 and 17.9 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 21.9 points per game, compared to 20.2 and 20.3 for the two bookmakers.

Lastly, WoSHBODS’ LPS of +1.9 bits compares to +2.2 bits for the two bookmakers.

Altogether a much better advertisement for the ability of statistical modelling (or should that be modellers?)

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AFLW 2026 - Round 7 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Collingwood v GWS: 0.2% u91.5 @ $1.87

  • Adelaide v Fremantle: 1.8% u85.5 @ $1.85

  • Gold Coast v St Kilda: 1.6% u85.5 @ $1.85

We’ve passed on an overs bet in the Sydney v Brisbane game due to forecast rain.

UPDATE FRIDAY 11:45AM

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Essendon v West Coast: 1.5% o95.5 @ $1.87

  • Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide: 2.3% u83.5 @ $1.85

  • Carlton v Richmond: 1.3% o83.5 @ $1.90

Although rain is forecast that might affect all three games, I’m assessing that it won’t be until later in the day that it’ll affect the scoring

UPDATE THURSDAY 5:45PM

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Geelong v Hawthorn: 0.1% o95.5 @ $1.85

AFLW 2026 - Round 7

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WoSHBODS is forecasting six home team wins and three away wins again this week, with one of those forecast home wins and one forecast away win actually underdogs with the bookmakers.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 5 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

  • Over 4 goals: 0 games

The average expected absolute margin is 10 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 11.8 points per game according to the bookmakers.

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AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 6

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This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 30-35% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 65% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton: roughly 90% chances of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 75-85% chances of being finalists; around 20-30% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Gold Coast: around 55% chance of being finalists; around 10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Adelaide and Brisbane: around 35-45% chance of being finalists; roughly 2-5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Fremantle: around 25% chance of being finalists; around 2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Richmond and Port Adelaide: around 10% chance of being finalists; around 1-<0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  10. West Coast: around 2% chance of being finalists; <0.5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  11. GWS, Collingwood, Essendon, and St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026- Round 6 Results - Yikes

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WoSHBODS tipped only 3 from 9 winners this week, while the bookmakers tipped 7.

Its Margin MAE was 22.4 points per game, compared to 15.1 and 15 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 24.9 points per game, compared to 24.8 for the two bookmakers.

Lastly, WoSHBODS’ LPS of -2.7 bits compares to +0.3 bits for the two bookmakers.

It was a not a good round in terms of forecasting performance.

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AFLW 2026 - Round 6 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE SUNDAY 11:30AM

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • GWS v Richmond: 0.2% u90.5 @ $1.87

  • Essendon v Gold Coast: 1.2% o80.5 @ $1.85

  • St Kilda v West Coast: 1.7% o79.5 @ $1.85

  • Brisbane v Adelaide: 0.5% o88.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE SATURDAY 2:50PM

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Fremantle v Western Bulldogs: 4.8% u81.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE SATURDAY 2PM

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Port Adelaide v Sydney: 0.5% u94.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE FRIDAY 12 NOON

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Hawthorn v North Melbourne: 0.9% u90.5 @ $1.87

AFLW 2026 - Round 6

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WoSHBODS is forecasting six home team wins and three away wins this week, with four of those forecast home wins actually an underdog with the bookmakers. Three of those four, however, are only expected to win by about a goal or less according to the bookmakers.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 6 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games

  • Over 4 goals: 1 game

The average expected absolute margin is 10.2 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 12.7 points per game according to the bookmakers.

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AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 5

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This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton and Geelong: roughly 95% chances of being finalists; around 65-70% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney, Brisbane, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 65-75% chances of being finalists; around 15-25% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle and Hawthorn: around 45-55% chance of being finalists; roughly 5-10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, and Adelaide: around 20-35% chance of being finalists; around 1-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Richmond, GWS, and West Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; around <0.5-1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon, Collingwood, and St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026 - Round 5 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE SUNDAY 12 noon

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Melbourne v Port Adelaide: 2.5% u97.5 @ $1.87

  • Richmond v St Kilda: 0.5% u86.5 @ $1.87

  • Sydney v GWS: 0.4% u93.5 @ $1.85

  • North Melbourne v Carlton: 1.1% u97.5 @ $1.87

  • Fremantle v Essendon: 4.3% u94.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE SATURDAY 11:00AM

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs: 0.8% u91.5 @ $1.87 and 3.3% u91.5 @ $1.85

  • Gold Coast v Collingwood: 0.8% u81.5 @ $1.87

  • West Coast v Brisbane: 0.8% u95.5 @ $1.87

AFLW 2026 - Round 5

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WoSHBODS is forecasting seven home team wins and two away wins this week with one of those forecast away winners (Western Bulldogs) actually an underdog with the bookmakers.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 2 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

  • Over 4 goals: 3 games

The average expected absolute margin is 18.4 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 17.3 points per game according to the bookmakers.

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AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 4

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This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: roughly 99% chances of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton and Brisbane: roughly 90-95% chances of being finalists; around 55% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong and Western Bulldogs: roughly 75-85% chances of being finalists; around 25-40% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney and Fremantle: around 50-60% chance of being finalists; roughly 10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Gold Coast: around 25-40% chance of being finalists; around 2-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Richmond and GWS: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; around <0.5-1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast: around 1% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026 - Round 4

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WoSHBODS is forecasting seven home team wins, two of which are bookmaker underdogs, and two away wins this week.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 3 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 game

  • Over 4 goals: 4 games

The average expected absolute margin is 23.8 points per game according to WoSHBODS, and 23.2 points per game according to the bookmakers.

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