AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 14
/This year’s post Round 14 simulations of the Finals are summarised below.
North Melbourne remain huge favourites, with Brisbane still the only other team with a double-digit probability of winning the Grand Final.
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS
Looking at Finals prospects, we have:
Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):
North Melbourne (about $1.35)
Brisbane (about $5)
North Melbourne remain at $1.10 for the Flag on the Futures market, with Brisbane at $9, Melbourne at $15, and Carlton at $26
