AFLW 2025 - Round 13 Results - Topping Up

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WoSHBODS tipped 3 from 4 winners this week, falling one short of both bookmaker’s perfect records.

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 15.4 points per game (compared to 18 and 17.9 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 12.4 points per game (compared to 21.8 points per game for the two bookmakers).

The LPS of +2.3 bits compares to +2 bits for the two bookmakers.

WoSHBODS continues to impress.

Overall, we’re at 71% accuracy for the season, 22.3 Game Margin MAE, 16.9 Totals MAE, and +23.2 LPS.

WAGERS

All three Funds returned profits this week, which has only happened on three occasions this season. Altogether, the Combined Portfolio rose by another 2.7c to finish up by almost 26c for the season on a +15.4% ROI and a 1.7 turn.

If only every season could be like this one.

PROFIT AND LOSS BY WAGER TYPE AND HOME V AWAY AND FAVOURITE V UNDERDOG STATUS

I’ll finish this week with a simple table that analyses the profit and loss attributable to different to head-to-head and line wagering, classifying each wager by whether it was on the home or away team, and the favourite or the underdog.

We see that:

  • the only unprofitable cell relates to head-to-head wagering on home team favourites. The ROI there is -0.2%

  • the most profitable cell in terms of both ROI and return relates to head-to-head wagering on home team underdogs. The ROI is +125% and the Return +20%

  • recognising that line wagering is weighted 65% in the Combined Portfolio compared to 25% for head-to-head wagering, the cell that has contributed most to Portfolio profit has been that for line wagering on home team favourites