AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 13

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This year’s post Round 13 simulations of the Finals are summarised below.

North Melbourne remain huge favourites, with Brisbane still the only other team with a double-digit probability of winning the Grand Final.

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.37)

  • Brisbane (about $4.80)

  • Melbourne (about $20)

North Melbourne is at $1.10 for the Flag on the Futures market, which is astonishing when you consider that they need to win two games to secure it.

We can also look at the week in which teams will bow out of the Finals. and the teams they’ll bow out to (or have bowed out to)

Note that the bottom half of the graphic is a replica of the top half but with varying y-axes for each team to better facilitate an understanding of the actual percentages.

We see that the most common finishes for the remaining teams are:

  • Lose a Semi Final: Hawthorn and Adelaide

  • Lose a Preliminary Final: Melbourne and Carlton (just)

  • Lose a Grand Final: Brisbane

  • Win a Grand Final: North Melbourne

Finally, we’ll take a look at possible Grand Final pairings

Note that 0s denote those pairings where the result occurred in less than 0.5% of replicates.

The most likely Grand Final involves North Melbourne defeating Brisbane, which occurs in just over 64% of all replicates. The next most likely involves Brisbane defeating North Melbourne, which occurs in just over 15% of all replicates.

Another 6% are accounted for by Brisbane defeating Melbourne, and another 4% by Melbourne defeating Brisbane. Another just over 8% is accounted for in games where North Melbourne defeats Hawthorn or Carlton.

In total, North Melbourne appears in 89% of all Grand Finals, Brisbane in 89% also, Melbourne in 11%, and Hawthorn in 4%. Between them, the four other teams appear in just 7% of Grand Finals, with Carlton accounting for over 70% of that.