AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 12

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This year’s post Round 12 simulations of the Finals are summarised below.

North Melbourne remain prohibitive favourites at unprecedented levels, with Brisbane the only other team with a double-digit probability of winning the Grand Final.

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.43)

  • Brisbane (about $5.60)

  • Melbourne (about $11.15)

The market remains much more bullish about the chances of every team except North Melbourne.

We can also look at the week in which teams will bow out of the Finals. and the teams they’ll bow out to

Note that the bottom half of the graphic is a replica of the top half but with varying y-axes for each team to better facilitate an understanding of the actual percentages.

We see that the most common finishes are:

  • Lose an Elimination Final: St Kilda and West Coast

  • Lose a Semi Final: Hawthorn, Carlton, and Adelaide

  • Lose a Preliminary Final: Brisbane and Melbourne

  • Win a Grand Final: North Melbourne

Finally, we’ll take a look at possible Grand Final pairings

Note that 0s denote those pairings where the result occurred in less than 0.5% of replicates.

The most likely Grand Final involves North Melbourne defeating Brisbane, which occurs in just under 30% of all replicates. The next most likely involves North Melbourne defeating Melbourne, which occurs in just under 25% of all replicates.

Another 11% are accounted for by Brisbane defeating North Melbourne, and another 5% by Melbourne defeating North Melbourne. There’s also 6% worth of Melbourne defeating Brisbane, and 5% of the opposite result and the same teams.

In total, North Melbourne appears in 89% of all Grand Finals, Brisbane in 50%, Melbourne in 39%, and Hawthorn in 12%. Between them, the four other teams appear in just 10% of Grand Finals, with Carlton accounting for about 70% of that.