WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, as did both bookmakers, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 77 from 108 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 22.8 points per game (compared to 22.6 and 22.7 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 21.7 points per game (compared to 18.9 and 18.8 for the two bookmakers).

The LPS of +0.3 bits compares to 0 and -0.13 bits for the two bookmakers.

It’s been a very good season for WoSHBODS, whose cumulative season-long results appear below.

Overall, we’re at 71% accuracy for the season, 22.5 Game Margin MAE, 16.4 Totals MAE, and +22.2 LPS.

TEAM-BY-TEAM FORECASTING STATISTICS

Let’s look at how forecastable teams have been in terms of their final margins across the home and away season.

In the table at right we have WoSHBODS’ MAE by team, which reveals that Hawthorn’s, Brisbane’s and Geelong’s final margins have been easiest to predict, and Gold Coast’s and Western Bulldog’s still most difficult.

The average absolute error this season has been about 3.75 goals per game, and the worst-case error for a single team just 4.75 goals per game.

Next let’s look at LPS by team, which essentially measures how predictable, in a probabilistic sense, each team’s win and loss record has been.

Here we find that the records of North Melbourne (especially), Gold Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn, and Melbourne have been easiest to probability estimate, and those of Sydney (especially), Richmond, Carlton and GWS most difficult.

Encouragingly, for all but those four teams, the season-long LPS aggregate is positive.

FORECAST ACCURACY BY FINAL MARGIN

WoSHBODS is now at 27 and 15 (64%) in games decided by less than three goals, but drops to 5 and 10 (33%) for games decided by 18 to 23 points.

It’s also recorded quite small MAEs for games decided by less than three goals and has really only suffered in the 20 blowout games decided by eight goals or more and where its MAE is just over 40 points per game.

WAGERS

This week we bounced in and out of profitability across the round, but finished up in both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds. Altogether, the Combined Portfolio rose by another 4.5c to finish up by over 23c for the season on a +14.1% ROI and a 1.6 turn.

Just nine more shenanigan opportunities remain.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Team Dashboard metric rankings appear below and reveal that the metric rankings most associated with ladder position are:

WoS Win Production Function: +0.88
Points Conceded: +0.83
Points Scored: +0.81
Goals Conceded: +0.81
Goals Scored: +0.80
Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.79
Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.77
Q3 Performances: +0.77
Scoring Shots Generated: +0.76
Q4 Performances: +0.76

The metrics least associated with ladder position are:

Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.18

The teams outside the Top 8 whose statistics most suggest they should perhaps be inside the Top 8 are Sydney, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs.

The full Team Dashboard appears below, and reveals that, among other things:

North Melbourne has completed the home and away season without losing a Q2.
North Melbourne have outscored their opponents by 2.4:1 or more in every quarter, and over 5:1 in Q2s, and 3:1 in Q1s and Q3s.
Melbourne have outscored their opponents by almost 4:1 in Q2s and over 2:1 in Q3s.
Brisbane have outscored their opponents by over 3:1 in Q4s.
Gold Coast were outscored by their opponents by over 2:1 in every quarter.
Brisbane, North Melbourne and Melbourne are the only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter
The only teams to have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter are Collingwood, Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS, Richmond, and St Kilda.
Brisbane, North Melbourne and Melbourne are the only teams to have generated more scoring shots than their opponents in each of the four quarters
Conversely, Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS, Richmond, and St Kilda are the only teams to have generated fewer scoring than their opponents in each of the four quarters
North Melbourne have converted at 66% in Q3s, and have allowed their opponents to convert at only 39% in the same quarter
Fremantle have allowed their opponents to convert at 72% in Q1s and 68% in Q4s.
Melborne have allowed their opponents to convert at only 21% in Q2s.
Richmond have allowed their opponents to convert at only 27% in Q1s.
Gold Coast have converted at only 28% in Q1s and 29% in Q3s.
Western Bulldogs have converted at only 29% in Q1s
West Coast have scored 37% of their points in Q4s
Port Adelaide have concede 36% of their points in Q4s
Western Bulldogs have scored only 16% of their total points in Q1s
Fremantle have scored only 15% of their total points in Q3s
Western Bulldogs have conceded only 16% of all they’ve conceded in Q1s
Geelong have conceded only 16% of all they’ve conceded in Q1s
North Melbourne have conceded only 16% of all they’ve conceded in Q2s
Brisbane have conceded only 14% of all they’ve conceded in Q4s
North Melbourne have registered more behinds than every team have registered goals.
Melbourne and Brisbane have registered more behinds than every team have registered goals except North Melbourne
The teams playing Finals have only a 59% winning rate over the last four rounds of the home and away season
The teams that finished 9th through 12th have a 69% winning rate over the last four rounds of the home and away season