AFLW 2025 - Round 13 - Week 1 of the Finals

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According to the bookmakers, the first week of the AFLW Finals comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • One game expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about six-and-a-half goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the four games of the round, which sees three favourites winning, all of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers. The one forecast underdog winner is Melbourne (over Brisbane) and they are forecast to win by less than a point.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 16.8 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 20.4 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

Investors have line wagers in three of the four contests this week, ranging from 0.4% to 2.2% and totalling just 4% of the original Line Fund.

Those are paired with two head-to-head wagers, sized 1.2% and 2.2% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling 3.4% of that Fund.

Combined, that means that only around 3.5% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend, which makes it very likely that we’ll end the season in profit.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

The most important result for Investors this weekend will be that for the Adelaide v St Kilda game. A Crows win by 17 points or more will add 1.4c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, while a loss of any size will lop 2c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

That’s over a 3c swing. The swing for that, and for the other games, are as follows:

  • Adelaide (v St Kilda): 3.4% swing

  • Carlton (v West Coast): 2.1% swing

  • North Melbourne (v Hawthorn): 0.5% swing

Altogether, as noted, about 3.5% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 5 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just over 2.5c. All lovely, sensible numbers.