AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 11

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This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams - in terms of their home and away season finishes - can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain Minor Premiers

  2. Hawthorn, Brisbane and Melbourne: certain of being finalists

  3. Carlton: 95% chance of finals

  4. St Kilda: 85% chance of finals

  5. Sydney: 75% chance of finals

  6. West Coast: 60% chance of finals

  7. Adelaide: 50% chance of finals

  8. Fremantle: 30% chance of finals

  9. Port Adelaide, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond, GWS, and Gold Coast: No chance of finals (Port Adelaide and Geelong are mathematical chances, but Port Adelaide finished 8th in just 3 simulation replicates, and Geelong in none)

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 9 teams with a better than 1-in-2 chance of finishing Top 8.

TOP 2s and Top 4s

Across the 10,000 simulation replicates, only three different combinations of teams appeared as the Top 2 at the end of the home and away season. They are shown in the table at right.

Just over 75% of those replicates had North Melbourne in 1st and Melbourne in 2nd

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The simulations offered only a little more variety in terms of final Top 4s. Overall, there were just five of them as shown in the table at left.

North Melbourne again dominates and appears in 1st place in all of the quartets, with Melbourne filling 2nd place in two quartets including the top one, Hawthorn in two, and Brisbane in one.

Even with the Top 4 teams determined (although not their order) there are still 242 distinct Top 8s that occurred across the 10,000 simulation replicates. The Top 10 of those appear below and account for only 43% of those seen in the simulation.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (50% up from 40%)

  • There’s a 3-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (15% down from 50%)

  • There’s now virtually no chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (0% unchanged)

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.41)

  • Brisbane (about $6.25)

  • Melbourne (about $9.10)

The market is much more bullish about the chances of every team except North Melbourne, but especially Hawthorn, Adelaide, Carlton, and Sydney.

(The fact that prices are even being offered for Port Adelaide and Geelong that are only $1,001 range is the bookmaking equivalent of trolling.)

We can also look at the week in which teams will bow out of the Finals. and the teams they’ll bow out to

Note that the bottom half of the graphic is a replica of the top half but with varying y-axes for each team to better facilitate an understanding of the actual percentages.

We see that the most common finishes, assuming a team makes finals, are:

  • Lose an Elimination Final: Adelaide, Carlton, Fremantle, St Kilda, and Sydney

  • Lose a Semi Final: West Coast

  • Lose a Preliminary Final: Brisbane, Hawthorn and Melbourne

  • Win a Grand Final: North Melbourne

Finally, we’ll take a look at possible Grand Final pairings

Note that 0s denote those pairings where the result occurred in less than 0.5% of replicates.

The most likely Grand Final now involves North Melbourne defeating Brisbane, which occurs in just under 31% of all replicates. The next most likely involves North Melbourne defeating Melbourne, which occurs in just under 28% of all replicates.

Another 10% are accounted for by Brisbane defeating North Melbourne, and another 7% by Melbourne defeating North Melbourne.

In total, North Melbourne appears in 89% of all Grand Finals, Brisbane in 50%, Melbourne in 43%, and Hawthorn in 10%.