AFLW 2025 - Round 11 Results - Consolidation

WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, while both bookmakers tipped 8, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 71 from 99 (72%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 12.7 points per game (compared to 12.5 and 12.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 12.6 points per game (compared to 11.9 and 11.8 for the bookmakers).

The LPS of +3.7 bits compares to +3.1 bits for the two bookmakers.

WoSHBODS continues to please.

The cumulative season-long results appear below.

Overall, we’re now at 72% accuracy for the season, 22.3 Game Margin MAE bookies 22.4 and 22.5), and 15.9 Totals MAE (bookies 16.1), and +21.9 LPS (bookies 21.1 and 21.3).

WAGERS

This week was another good one, with profits for all three Funds.

(Note that the Ready Reckoner for the Gold Coast v Collingwood game correctly showed 4.1% total for line betting on Collingwood at the top of the cell but the accompanying calculations were for only 2%. Hence the profit is a little better than shown there).

Altogether, the Combined Portfolio rose by just over 3c to finish up by 18.5c for the season on a +13% ROI and a 1.4 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Team Dashboard metric rankings appear below and reveal that the metric rankings most associated with ladder position are:

  • Percentage of Quarters Won: +0.88

  • WoS Win Production Function: +0.88

  • Goals Conceded: +0.82

  • Q3 Performances: +0.81

  • Goals Scored: +0.80

  • Scoring Shots Generated: +0.79

  • Points Conceded: +0.78

  • Points Scored: +0.76

  • Scoring Shots Conceded: +0.73

The metrics least associated with ladder position are:

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.23

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.47

At this stage, the team outside the Top 8 whose statistics most suggest it should perhaps be inside the Top 8 remains Western Bulldogs.

The full Team Dashboard appears below: