AFLW 2025 - Round 12

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According to the bookmakers, Round 12 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just over three goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between about four-and-a-half and just over five goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees seven of nine favourites winning, six of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers. The two forecast underdog winners are Western Bulldogs (again) and West Coast

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 18.5 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 21.4 points per game.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

Investors have a line wager on all nine games this week, and six of them were subject to shenanigans despite my delaying entry in the markets.

In aggregate, those nine line wagers represent 25% of the original Line Fund and range in size from 0.3% to 5.1%.

WoSHBODS also has eight shenanigan-free head-to-head wagers this week, in sizes ranging from 0.2% to 4.7% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling just under 18% of that Fund.

Combined, that means that around 21% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend. Which is, of course, outrageous …

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below, which this week convinced me that I need to find a way of automatically producing it for a given set of wagers.

(Note that we have, for only the second time this season, bets on different teams for the head-to-head versus line markets for the same game. Specifically, we have GWS head-to-head at $5.50 and Port Adelaide -20.5 and $1.88, the EVs for which are +9% and +3%)

The most important result for Investors this weekend will be that for the Western Bulldogs v St Kilda game. A Dogs win by any margin will add 4.7c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, while a loss by 8 points or more will lop 4.4c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

That’s over a 9c swing. The swing for that, and for the other games, are as follows:

  • WesternBulldogs (v St Kilda): 9.1% swing

  • Fremantle (v Adelaide): 8.1% swing

  • Essendon (v Sydney): 6.4% swing

  • Richmond (v Gold Coast): 6.3% swing

  • North Melbourne (v Hawthorn): 4.8% swing

  • Brisbane (v Collingwood): 3.9% swing

  • Melbourne (v Geelong): 2% swing

  • West Coast (v Carlton): 1.5% swing

  • GWS v Port Adelaide: 0.3% swing

Altogether, as noted, about 21% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 17 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just under 22c.