AFLW 2025 - Round 16 - Week 4 of the Finals

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The bookmakers have North Melbourne winning the AFLW Grand Final by just over four goals, whilst WoSHBODS has the margin as nearer three goals, as you can see in the chart below.

WoSHBODS Wagering

That difference of opinion about the Roos’ victory margin has seen WoSHBODS venture wagers on the underdog Lions both head-to-head and in the line market.

Specifically, it has a 1.1% wager on the Lions head-to-head at $6.50, along with a 1.2% wager on the Lions +25.5 @ $1.90 and another 0.7% wager on the Lions +25.5 @ $1.88.

The possible scenarios are therefore:

  • Lions win: 1.1% x 25% x 5.5 + 1.2% x 65% x 0.9 + 0.7% x 65% x 0.88 = +2.6%

  • Lions draw: 1.1% x 25% x (6.5/2 - 1) + 1.2% x 65% x 0.9 + 0.7% x 65% x 0.88 = +1.7%

  • Lions lose by 1 to 25 points: -1.1% x 25% + 1.2% x 65% x 0.9 + 0.7% x 65% x 0.88 = +0.8%

  • Otherwise: -1.1% x 25% - 1.2% x 65% - 0.7% x 65% = -1.5%

So, the potential swing is just over 4%.