AFLW 2025 - Round 16 Results - Finale
/Everyone tipped the winner this week - the only debate was about the margin.
Consequently, this week’s result improved every performance metric except game margin MAE, and even then only fractionally increased it.
North Melbourne finished with a score less than a goal different from what WoSHBODS expected, but Brisbane finished almost three goals shy of what WoSHBOS had hoped for.
So, after 117 games, the bookmakers prevail on accuracy and game margin MAE (just), and WoSHBODS prevails on total MAE and LPS.
I would, without hesitation, have accepted the numbers in the table at left had you offered me them pre-season.
One of the enduring challenges about building models for the AFLW is the relative paucity of data, so there’s no doubt a generous helping of good fortune in those results. The challenge now is whether or not to re-optimise for the 2026 season.
WAGERS
I would likewise have happily accepted the season’s wagering results, notwithstanding the final round contribution to the bookmakers’ Xmas party fund,
Altogether, the Combined Portfolio fell by 1.4c this week - its first decline since Round 2 - to finish up by just under 29c for the season on a +16% ROI and a 1.77 turn.
The breakdown of these results for the Head-to-Head and Line Funds appears in the table at right, which shows that, however you slice bets in terms of home v away and/or underdog v favourite, WoSHBODS finished in profit in both Funds.
Lastly, looking at the Overs/Unders Fund we find that the most lucrative substantial wagering came from unders and overs betting where the estimated overlay was under a goal.
Purely numercially speaking, a larger ROI was returned on wagers where the estimated overlay was two to three goals, but there were only two such wagers all season.
