2025 - Team Ratings After Round 13

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Both Systems lowered the Ratings of the Top 3 teams this week, but they remain, in order and for both, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.

In total, MoSSBODS moved only five teams this week and MoSHBODS only three, with Carlton (up 2 to 7th) and Adelaide (down 3 to 9th) the only multi-spot movers on MoSSBODS. No team moved by more than a single spot on MoSHBODS.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.971 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.88 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find both MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Cats, and MoSHBODS with Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Dockers, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Suns, and Lions.

MoSSBODS now has 11 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has just 10, excluding Sydney and Port Adelaide, but including Fremantle. MoSSBODS has now 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has only 10, swapping out Sydney.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.48 standard deviations (which is roughly unchanged) and defensive ratings a range of 1.3 standard deviations (which is narrowing). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.37 standard deviations (which is shrinking) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.25 standard deviations (which is also shrinking).

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 10 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 8 are rated negatively on both (up 1), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 2), and none is rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.83, which is up on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 13s.

The Western Bulldogs dropped out of the top decile for the Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked only four teams this week, putting Geelong into 1st ahead of Collingwood, and Adelaide into 3rd ahead of Western Bulldogs.

Further down there were no other changes in ordering.

Just under 27 Rating Points now separates 1st from 11th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 21 to 22 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 13 last season, the gap between 1st and 11th was just over 29 Rating Points, or roughly 23 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,033.6, Adelaide were 11th on 1,004.5, and North Melbourne were last on 945.8.

There are still 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Sydney only half a Rating point below the 1,000 cutoff.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (ignoring MARS)

MoSSBODS again this week provides the most outlying rankings at 10, ahead of MARS with 8, and MoSHBODS at only 2.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 8 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 4, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about only 7.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide has the widest range of rankings at six spots, and that there are four other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Collingwood, Essendon, and Fremantle.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved a little further apart in terms of their rankings this week, as shown by the rank correlations below

:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.897 (was +0.95)

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.967 (was +0.979)

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.948 (was +0.965)