2025 - Round 14 : MoSHBODS Gets Choosy

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Only seven games this week, all of them expected to be won by about 5 goals or less, and three of them by 3 goals or less.

To the models.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The RSMP twins and MoSHBODS_Marg have joined Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder this week in choosing underdogs to win, but only Home Sweet Home has gone this path in more than a single game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in six of the seven games, most notably 32 points in the Roos v Dockers clash, 24 points in the Saints v Dogs clash, and 23 points in the Lions v Giants matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg is at one end of those ranges in all three games as well as in two more. No other Predictor is Extreme in more than three games in total.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four game with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: 16% points in the Lions v Giants game, 15% points in the Saints v Dogs game, and 13% points in the Roos v Dockers game.

MoSSBODS_Prob is on one end of all three of those games, as well as on three more, and Bookie_LPSO is likewise in four games.

WAGERS

MoSHBODS has found apparent value in only two teams this week, but in both the head-to-head and line markets for both of them. It has 0.7% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and 0.7% of the orignal Line Fund on Hawthorn, along with 4.6% of the Head-to-Head Fund and 3.5% of the Line Fund on the Brisbane Lions.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Time for a Ready Reckoner to look at our potential outcomes, which we’ll do by hand this week.

Hawthorn v Adelaide

  • Hawthorn win: 0.7% x 0.9 x 25% + 0.7% x 0.9 x 65% = +0.6c

  • Hawthorn draw: 0.7% x (1.9/2) x 25% - 0.7% x 65% = -0.3c

  • Hawthorn lose: 0.7% x 0.9 x 25% - 0.7% x 65% = -0.6c

Brisbane Lions v GWS

  • Brisbane Lions win by 19 points or more: 4.6% x 0.37 x 25% + 3.5% x 0.9 x 65% = +2.5c

  • Brisbane Lions win by 1 to 18 points: 4.6% x 0.37 x 25% - 3.5% x 65% = -1.6c

  • Brisbane Lions draw: 4.6% x (1.37/2-1) x 25% - 3.5% x 65% = -2.4c

  • Brisbane Lions lose: -4.6% x 25% - 3.5% x 65% = -3.2c

So it’s Brisbane Lions who very much hold Investors’ fate this week.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 3c, while a worst case set would snip almost 4c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.