The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.5 points per game, with the difference in one game just under 6 points and in two more over 3 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are 1 or 2 points higher than the bookmakers’.

There is a great deal of disagreement about the lowest-scoring game this week, so much so that MoSHBODS’ forecast for the lowest-scoring game is also one of the TAB’s forecasts for the highest-scoring game. As it used to be common to exclaim: let that sink in.

Highest Scoring Game

All: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs (TAB also Brisbane Lions v GWS)

Lowest Scoring Game

MoSSBODS: North v Fremantle
MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions v GWS
TAB: Hawthorn v Adelaide
Sportsbet: Port Adelaide v Melbourne

Highest Scoring Team

All: Fremantle

Lowest Scoring Team

All: North Melbourne (TAB also Essendon)

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found two wagers this week, both of them overs, but one of them has been declned on the basis of forecast rain.

The estimated overlay in the wagered-upon game is 12.5 points, and the wager is 5.2%. The overlay in the game where we’ve passed on betting is about 1 point lower.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSSBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Game Margins, the TAB do the same for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, and Sportsbet take the remaining honours for Home Team Scores.

That saw MoSHBODS lose the season-long lead on Home Team Scores and Game Totals to the TAB, which means that the TAB now leads on all four metrics.

The leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 1 point ahead of Sportsbet, 52 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 147 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 3 points ahed of MoSHBODS, 10 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 72 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, 26 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 56 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 5 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 8 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 45 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was one bet last week, an unsuccessful overs wager with Sportsbet. That left MoSSBODS with a 12 and 9 season-long record against the TAB, and a 5 and 5 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS were on the right side of only one game with both the TAB and Sportsbet - again something I don’t think has ever occurred before.

That takes MoSSBODS to 56 from 113 (50%) against the TAB and 57 from 113 (50%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 66 from 113 (58%) against the TAB, and 64 from 113 (57%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.