2025 - Round 13 : MoSHBODS Breaks Out

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(Rewriting this again because Squarespace decided to completely ignore my rewrite for this week)

This week we have eight-ninths of a full round and it comprises six games that are expected to be won by the home team and by less than three goals, and two games that are expected to be won by the away team and by less than four goals.

Let’s see what the models make of the eight games.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There is no contrarianism outside of the usual suspects this week, which means that there’ll be little movement on the Leaderboard.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in six games, most notably 25 points in the Giants v Power clash, 15 points in the Dogs v Hawks clash, and 14 points in the Tigers v Swans matchup.

ENS_Linear has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are three game with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: 25% points in the Giants v Power game, 14% points on the Dogs v Hawks game, and 12% points in the Crows v Lions game.

MoSHBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_OE in four.

WAGERS

MoSHBODS has found apparent value in a lot of places this week, opting for five head-to-head bets ranging in size from 0.7% to 5.3% and totalling just over 16% of the orignal Head-to-Head Fund, plus four line bets (on four of the same five teams) ranging in size from 0.8% to 4.2% and totalling just over 11% of the orignal Line Fund.

This week is probably going to matter in the grand scheme of things.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Western Bulldogs carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win by two goals or more and a loss represents 7.1% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Brisbane Lions carry 6.7% risk, Geelong 4%, GWS 1.8%, and Carlton 1.2%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 10c, while a worst case set would snip 11c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.