2025 - Team Ratings After Round 12

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Both Systems moved only three teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that they are, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats. On both Systems, the Pies and the Cats drew a little nearer to the Dogs, although the gap between the Pies and the Dogs on MoSHBODS is far smaller than on MoSSBODS.

The big movers on MoSSBODS were Adelaide (up 4 into 6th), Sydney (down 3 into 11th), and Carlton (down 2 into 9th). On MoSHBODS they were Adelaide (up 4 into 4th), Fremantle (up 2 into 8th), and Hawthorn (down 2 into 7th),

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.968 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.89 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we still find both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS with Top 3s of Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Dockers, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Dockers, and Dogs.

MoSSBODS still has 12 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has just 11, excluding Sydney and Port Adelaide, but including Fremantle. MoSSBODS has 10 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has only 9, swapping out Melbourne.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.49 standard deviations (which is unchanged) and defensive ratings a range of 1.4 standard deviations (which is widening). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.39 standard deviations (which is shrinking) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.37 standard deviations (which is widening).

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, nine teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 7 are rated negatively on both (up 1), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and none is rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.77, which is down a little on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 12s.

The Western Bulldogs remain in the top decile for Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final and are still rated as one of the highest teams ever at this point in the competition. Collingwood is not far behind.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, including moving Collingwood up two places into 1st, and dropping Western Bulldogs down two places into 3rd.

Further down there were just three pair of single-spot swaps: Adelaide taking 4th from Brisbane Lions, Fremantle 8th from GWS, and St Kilda 12th from Melbourne.

Just under 23 Rating Points now separates 1st from 10th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 18 to 19 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 12 last season, the gap between 1st and 10th was just under 24 Rating Points, or roughly 19 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,031.8, Port Adelaide were 10th on 1,008, and North Melbourne were last on 944.

There are currently now just 10 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Gold Coast (ignorng MoSHBODS) and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs, Carlton, and Sydney

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 9, ahead of MARS with 7, and MoSHBODS with 4.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 6 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 4, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about only 6.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS has the widest range of rankings at four spots, and that there is one other team whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon, Fremantle, and West Coast.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved a little closer in terms of their rankings this week, as shown by the rank correlations below

:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.95 (was +0.93)

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.979 (was +0.969)

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.965 (was +0.94)