2025 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders

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The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is just under 3 points per game, with differences in two games as high as 5 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are, unusually, 5 or 6 points higher than the bookmakers’.

At least part of the reason for that difference is the rain that is expected to affect a number of games.

There’s once again no consensus on any of the highest and lowest team or game scores this week:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: North Melbourne v West Coast

  • Bookmakers: Geelong v Gold Coast

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: Carlton v Essendon

  • Bookmakers: Adelaide v Brisbane Lions (tied with GWS v Port Adelaide for Sportsbet)

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoS twins: Western Bulldogs

  • Bookmakers: Geelong

Lowest Scoring Team

  • MoS twins: Essendon

  • Bookmakers: Port Adelaide

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found three wagers this week, all of them overs, but two of them have been declned on the basis of forecast rain.

The estimated overlay in the wagered-upon game is just under 12 points, and the wager is 4.7%. The overlays in the games where we’ve passed on betting are of a similar magnitude and. on that basis, it is tempting to bet anyway given that 2-goal rainfalls are relatively rare - but, we are nothing if not disciplined here on the MoS website.

Altogether, the wagers represent just under 11% of the original Unders/Overs Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSHBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Home Team Scores and Game Totals, the TAB do the same for Away Team Scores, and Sportsbet take the remaining honours for Game Margins.

That saw MoSHBODS take the season-long lead on Game Totals back from the TAB to go with its lead on Home Team Scores. The TAB still leads on Game Margins and Away Team Scores.

The leads are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: the TAB 1 point ahead of Sportsbet, 37 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 158 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 27 points ahead of the TAB, 38 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 79 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: the TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, 13 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 20 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSHBODS 27 points ahead of MoSSBODS, 30 points ahead of the TAB, and 37 points ahead of Sportsbet

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last week, two successful unders wagers with the TAB, and one successful unders wager with Sportsbet. That left MoSSBODS with a 12 and 9 season-long record against the TAB, and a 5 and 4 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS were on the right side of all seven games with both the TAB and Sportsbet - something I don’t think has ever been achieved before.

That takes MoSSBODS to 55 from 105 (52%) against the TAB and 56 from 105 (53%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 65 from 105 (62%) against the TAB, and 63 from 105 (60%) against Sportsbet.

Those MoSHBODS percentages are ludicrously high.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.

From this we can see that MoSSBODS is 43 from 70 (61%) against Sportsbet and MoSHBODS is 45 from 70 (64%) against the TAB since and including Round 5.