2025 - Round 12 : Very, Very Quiet

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This week we return to truncated rounds, and the seven games this week include four that are expected to be settled by less than three goals, and three that are expected to be settled by six goals or more.

Let’s see what the models make of that.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Five home favourites leaves room for only two doses of Home Sweet Home contrarianism, and that is joined by just a single dose from MoSSBODS_Marg.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in four games, most notably 16 points in the Eagles v Cats clash, 15 points in the Giants v Tigers clash, and 14 points in the Swans v Crows matchup.

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and MoSSBODS_Marg and ENS_Linear in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast range: 14% points in the Swans v Crows game.

MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE have Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and MoSSBODS_Prob in three.

WAGERS

The Head-to-Head Fund has four wagers this week, ranging in size from 0.1% to just 0.8% and totalling just over 1% of the original Fund, while the Line Fund has opted for two bets, this week ranging in size from 0.8% to 0.9% and totalling just under 2% of the original Fund.

Those are not going to “move the needle” as businesses like to say these days.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Sydney carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win and a loss by five points or more by them, represents 1.6% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Carlton carry 1% risk, West Coast 0.1%, and Collingwood and Gold Coast about 0.05%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 1c, while a worst case set would snip just over 1c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.