2025 - Team Ratings After Round 11

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Both Systems moved only two teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that the medals currently belong to, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.

Interestingly, such was the difference in conversion rates in the Cats v Dogs game (Geelong 74% to Western Bulldogs 48%) that, when coupled with the very large Geelong venue advantage, both Systems saw fit to lift the Dogs’ underlying rating and drop the Cats’ even though the Cats ran out 127 to 113 winners.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.974 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.9 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we still find both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS with Top 3s of Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Dockers, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Dogs, and Blues.

MoSSBODS now has 12 teams rated as above average on offence, as does MoSHBODS, although MoSSBODS swaps Port Adelaide in for Fremantle. MoSSBODS has 11 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has only 10.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.49 standard deviations (which is widening) and defensive ratings a range of 1.32 standard deviations (which is roughly steady). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.485 standard deviations (which is also widening) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.28 standard deviations (which is also widening).

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 10 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (down 1), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (up 2), and none is rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.78, which is down a little on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 11s.

The Western Bulldogs have remained in the top decile for Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final and are still rated as one of the highest teams ever at this point in the competition.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked 10 teams this week, including moving Collingwood up one place into 3rd, and dropping Hawthorn down three places into 6th.

Further down, Fremantle rose two spots into 9th, and Melbourne rose two into 12th, while Sydney fell three spots into 11th.

Just over 21 Rating Points now separates 1st from 11th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 16 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 11 last season, the gap between 1st and 11th was just about 26.5 Rating Points, or roughly 21 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,031.8, Fremantle were 11th on 1,005.3, and North Melbourne were last on 944.

There are currently still 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Gold Coast (ignorng MoSHBODS) and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Carlton (ignoring MARS)

MoSSBODS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 9, ahead of MARS with 7, and MoSHBODS with 5.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 6 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 5, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about only 5.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide has the widest range of rankings at five spots, and that there are five other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also two teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon and Western Bulldogs.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved a little further apart in terms of their rankings this week.

The rank correlations are now as follows:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.93 (was +0.963)

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.969 (was +0.959)

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.94 (was +0.959)