2025 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins, as is becoming the norm, have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with five of the seven games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts, and in three of those by 4 points or more. Overall, the difference in their average Total is 2 points per game and their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 3 to 5 points per game.

There’s no consensus on any of the highest and lowest team or game scores this week:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoS twins: West Coast v Geelong

  • Bookmakers: Sydney v Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: Melbourne v St Kilda (TAB also has Collingwood v Hawthorn)

  • MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions v Essendon

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoS twins: Geelong

  • Bookmakers: GWS

Lowest Scoring Team

  • MoSSBODS: Essendon

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found four wagers again this week, three on unders and one on overs, but the latter is on the West Coast game where rain is expected and so has been ignored by Investors.

The estimated overlays in the wagered-upon games range from 9 to 10 points, and the wager sizes from 3.1% to 3.9% accordingly.

Altogether, the wagers represent just under 11% of the original Unders/Overs Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw MoSSBODS take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet take the remaining honours for Game Margins.

That saw MoSHBODS take the season-long lead on Home Team Scores back from the TAB, and the TAB take the season-long lead on Away Team Scores back from MoSHBODS. The TAB still leads on Game Margins and Game Totals.

The leads are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: the TAB 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, 36 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 47 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of the TAB, 15 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 71 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: the TAB 6 points ahead of MoSHBODS and Sportsbet, and 10 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: the TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet, 18 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 38 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were two bets last week, both successful unders wagers with the TAB. That left MoSSBODS with an 10 and 9 season-long record against the TAB, and still a 4 and 4 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet Totals 6 times in 9, and MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet Totals 7 times in 9.

That takes MoSSBODS to 48 from 98 (49%) against the TAB and 49 from 98 (50%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 58 from 98 (59%) against the TAB, and 49 from 89 (55%) against Sportsbet.

The continued outperformance of MoSSBODS by MoSHBODS is a source, equally, of amusement and frustration.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.

From this we can see that MoSSBODS is 36 from 63 (57%) against Sportsbet and MoSHBODS is 38 from 63 (60%) against the TAB since and including Round 5.