2025 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins again have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with six games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts and two of those by more than 5 points. Overall, however, the difference in their average Total is just a point. Their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 1 to 3 points.

Opinions on the low scoring games and teams are quite varied this week:

Highest Scoring Game

  • All: Geelong v Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS: St Kilda v Gold Coast

  • MoSHBODS: Carlton v GWS

  • Bookmakers: Adelaide v West Coast

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Team

  • MoSSBODS: North Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: West Coast

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found three wagers again this week, two on unders and one on overs, but the latter is on the Adelaide game where rain is expected and so has been ignored by Investors.

The estimated overlays in the wagered-upon games range from 7 to 8.5 points, and the wager sizes from 2.4% to 3.5% accordingly.

Altogether, the wagers represent just under 6% of the original Unders/Overs Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take honours for all four metrics, sharing two of them - Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores - with Sportsbet.

That left all four season-long honours in exactly the same hands.

The leads are now as follows:

  • Game Margins: the TAB 4 points ahead of Sportsbet, 20 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 115 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: the TAB 12 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 12 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 71 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS under 1 point ahead of the TAB, 6 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 11 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: the TAB 5 points ahead of Sportsbet, 36 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 60 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There were three bets last week: one successful and one unsuccessful unders wager with the TAB, and one unsuccessful unders wager with Sportsbet. That left MoSSBODS with an 8 and 9 season-long record against the TAB, and a 4 and 4 season-long record against Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet Totals 4 times in 9, and MoSHBODS was on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet Totals 6 times in 9.

That takes MoSSBODS to 42 from 89 (47%) against the TAB and 43 from 89 (48%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 51 from 89 (57%) against the TAB, and 49 from 89 (55%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.

From this we can see that MoSSBODS is 30 from 54 (56%) against Sportsbet and MoSHBODS is 29 from 54 (56%) against the TAB since and including Round 5.