2025 - Round 11 : There's No Momentum in Wagering

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Tipping winners is not getting any easier. Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by three goals or less, an eighth by about six-and-a-half goals, and the ninth by just over nine goals.

Those are fairly similar numbers to what we had last week, and that produced five games with game margins under 3 goals and had most Head-to-Head Predictors scoring 6 from 9, at best.

Let’s see what the models make of the week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s scant contrarianism this week, with Home Sweet Home (3 games) and Consult The Ladder (3 games) joined only by ENS_Linear and MoSSBODS_Marg in a single game each.

So, unless MoSHPlay strays a long way from MoSHBODS, its top billing on the Leadership Board should remain.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in six games, most notably 24 points in the Roos v Pies clash, 19 points in the Crows v Eagles clash, 15 points in the Hawks v Lions clash, and 13 points in the Blues v Giants matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg and ENS_Linear have Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_9 in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only three games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: 13% points in the Blues v Giants game, 12% points in the Hawks v Lions match, and 11% points in the Cats v Dogs clash.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, Bookie_LPSO in five, and Bookie_OE in four.

WAGERS

The Head-to-Head Fund has three wagers this week, ranging in size only from 1.2% to 4.9% and totalling 8% of the original Fund, while the Line Fund has opted for four bets, this week ranging in size from 0.4% to 3.7% and totalling just over 7% of the original Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Hawthorn carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win by 9 points or more by them, and a loss, represents 6.5% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Carlton carry 3.7% risk, Fremantle 1.1%, Richmond 0.9%, and Adelaide 0.5%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 6c, while a worst case set would snip just under 7c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.