2025 - Team Ratings After Round 10

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MoSSBODS moved only four teams by multiple spots this week, but that included lifting the Cats from 5th into 3rd, and dropping the Lions from 3rd into 5th. MoSHBODS re-ranked a lot more teams than MoSSBODS, but only three by multiple spots, but also moved the Cats into 3rd, meaning that the two Systems now agree about the Top 4 teams being, in order, Dogs, Pies, Cats, and Hawks.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.98 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 0.89 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we now find both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS with Top 3s of Dogs, Cats, and Pies. On defence, MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Pies, Dogs, and Blues, while MoSHBODS now has Pies, Blues, and Dogs.

MoSSBODS still has 11 teams rated as above average on offence, as does MoSHBODS, although MoSSBODS swaps Port Adelaide in for Fremantle. MoSSBODS has though only 9 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS still has 11 and includes Adelaide and GWS.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 1.41 standard deviations (which is widening) and defensive ratings a range of 1.3 standard deviations (which is narrowing). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 1.35 standard deviations (which is also widening) and defensive ratings a range of about 1.24 standard deviations (which is also narrowing).

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSHBODS Rating (with thanks to www.footyjumpers.com for the use of their exquisite team guernseys)

On MoSHBODS, 11 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 7 are rated negatively on both (up 1), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and none is rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1). That is the first time I can recall all 18 of the team Ratings as lying in either the positive-positive or negative-negative quadrants.

The correlation between the teams’ MoSHBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.83, which is up a little on last week.

To put the latest MoSHBODS Ratings in some historical context, here are the Ratings of teams across V/AFL history as at the end of their respective Round 10s.

The Western Bulldogs have now moved into the top decile for Combined Rating of teams that went on to make their Grand Final and are rated as one of the highest teams ever at this point in the competition.

And, finally, it’s time to take a look at MARS, which re-ranked 13 teams this week, including moving Western Bulldogs up one places into 1st, Geelong up three places into 2nd, and Hawthorn down two places into 3rd.

Further down, Sydney rose two places into 8th, and GWS fell two places into 9th.

Just under 21 Rating Points now separates 1st from 11th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 16 points.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 10 last season, the gap between 1st and 11th was just over 25 Rating Points, or roughly 20 points. Sydney was at that point ranked 1st with a Rating of 1,030.8, Fremantle were 11th on 1,005.2, and North Melbourne were last on 946.9.

There are currently still 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (determined based on percentage of possible competition points collected and then for and against percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Gold Coast (ignorng MoSHBODS) and Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs, Geelong, and Sydney

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 8, ahead of MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS with 6 each.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 6 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 5, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 8 (including the Top 3 and the Bottom 1).

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Sydney all have the widest range of rankings at three spots, and that these are now the only teams whose rankings span more than two spots.

There is now also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast.

Broadly speaking the various Rating Systems generally moved closer together in terms of their rankings this week.

The rank correlations are now as follows:

  • MARS with MoSSBODS: +0.963

  • MARS with MoSHBODS: +0.959

  • MoSSBODS with MoSHBODS: +0.959