2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R14

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This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood and Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Gold Coast: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-55% chances of Top 4; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, and Fremantle: roughly 70-80% chance of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS: about 50% chance of being finalists; 4% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and St Kilda: roughly 1-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We have 10 teams with about or better than 3-in-10 chance of finishing Top 8, and seven with about or better than a 1-in-6 chance of finishing Top 4.

Whilst half the teams have about 60% chances or better of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams would be far more certain (90%+) with at least 13.5 wins.

Best with 12.5 or 13 wins are Western Bulldogs (89%), Adelaide (88%), Geelong (86%).

Looking at the changes in Finals chances, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • GWS: 17% point increase (to 48%) in probability of playing Finals

  • Western Bulldogs: 13% point increase (to 54%) in probability of finishing Top 4

DECREASES

  • Brisbane Lions: 11% point decrease (to 80%) in probability of playing Finals, and 20% point decrease (to 23%) in probability of finishing Top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $3.45)

  • Collingwood (about $4)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $5)

  • Adelaide (about $11.10)

  • Gold Coast and Hawthorn (about $20)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $25)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 9,999 different Top 18s

  • 7,970 different Top 8s (which contain 212 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 801 different Top 4s (which contain 114 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

There was a large decrease in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year, and that probability remains resolutely single digit.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now about an 11-in-20 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 4-in-9 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-25 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s still about a 1-in-3 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (32%, unchanged)

  • There is now about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (33%, up from 31%)

  • There’s now about a 2-in-9 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (22%, up from 20%)