2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R13

/

This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; over 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide: over 95% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle and Hawthorn: about 75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Essendon: 3-7% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We still have 8 teams with about or better than 3-in-4 chances of finishing Top 8, and six with about or better than a 2-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

Whilst half the teams have about 75% chances or better of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams would be far more certain with at least 13.5 wins.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Fremantle: 23% point increase (to 73%) in probability of playing Finals

DECREASES

  • GWS: 23% point decrease (to 31%) in probability of playing Finals

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with prices shown in brackets):

  • Collingwood (about $3.70)

  • Geelong (about $4.35)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $5.90)

  • Adelaide (about $9.10)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $14.30)

  • Gold Coast and Hawthorn (about $16.70)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 10,000 different Top 18s

  • 8,285 different Top 8s (which contain 263 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 963 different Top 4s (which contain 130 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

There was a slight increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year, and that probability remains single digit.

The new numbers suggest that there’s still about a 9-in-20 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 1-in-2 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-14 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s still about a 1-in-3 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (33%, up from 32%)

  • There is now about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (31%, down from 32%)

  • There’s still only about a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (steady at 20%)