2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R12

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This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Western Bulldogs and Adelaide: roughly 95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 6-8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 6% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle: about 75% chance of being finalists; 12% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Hawthorn: about 50-55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton: about 25-30% chances of being finalists; 1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Melbourne, Essendon, Sydney, St Kilda: 5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  9. Port Adelaide: 2% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We still have 9 teams with about or better than 1-in-2 chances of finishing Top 8, six with about or better than a 2-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4, and six with 5% or better chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

Whilst about half the teams still have better than 60% chances of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams would be far more certain with at least 13.5 wins.

(NB: I notice that the Pies have an apparent 100% chance of playing Finals with only 10.5 to 11 wins. That’s because, in the very few simulation replicates in which they recorded that few, they made the Finals every time. I need to find a way to weed out or flag percentages like this one shown here that are based on very few simulation replicates.)

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Fremantle: 24% point increase (to 75%) in probability of playing Finals

  • Adelaide: 22% point increase (to 57%) in probability of finishing Top 4

DECREASES

  • Hawthorn: 15% point decrease (to 51%) in probability of playing Finals

  • Gold Coast: 20% point decrease (to 38%) in probability of finishing Top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with prices shown in brackets):

  • Collingwood (about $3.35)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $4.35)

  • Geelong (about $5)

  • Adelaide (about $9.10)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $16.70)

  • Gold Coast (about $20)

  • Fremantle and Hawthorn (about $50)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 10,000 different Top 18s

  • 8,564 different Top 8s (which contain 266 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 1,067 different Top 4s (which contain 148 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

There was a slight decrease in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year, and that probability remains single digit.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now about a 9-in-20 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and just over another 9-in-20 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-16 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now about a 1-in-3 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (32%, down from 35%)

  • There remains about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (steady at 32%)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (20%, down from 22%)