2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R11
/This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier
Geelong and Gold Coast: 93-99% chance of being finalists; 60-80% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier
Western Bulldogs: 95% chance of being finalists; 65% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: about 85-90% chance of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle: about 50-65% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chance of being Minor Premier
Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne: 10-25% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier
St Kilda, Essendon, Port Adelaide: 2-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier
North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier
LADDER FINISHES
The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.
We still have 11 teams with about or better than 2-in-5 chances of finishing Top 8, seven with about or better than 1-in-4 chances of finishing Top 4, and four with better than 10% chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.
Whilst about half the teams still have better than 60% chances of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams would be far more certain with at least 13.5 wins.
Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:
INCREASES
GWS: 18% point increase (to 40%) in probability of playing Finals
Brisbane Lions: 17% point increase (to 88%) in probability of playing Finals and 19% point increase (to 43%) in probability of finishing Top 4
Freemantle: 11% point increase (to 51%) in probability of playing Finals
DECREASES
Sydney: 23% point decrease (to 15%) in probability of playing Finals
Carlton 18% point decrease (to 24%) in probability of playing Finals
Hawthorn 17% point decrease (to 66%) in probability of playing Finals and 20% point decrease (to 16%) in probability of finishing Top 4
FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS
Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:
Flag favouritism is currently, in order:
Western Bulldogs and Collingwood (about $4.20)
Geelong (about $5.25)
Gold Coast (about $12.50)
Brisbane Lions (about $14.30)
Adelaide and Hawthorn (about $16.70)
COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS
In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:
9,999 different Top 18s
9,383 different Top 8s (which contain 378 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)
1,492 different Top 4s (which contain 218 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)
LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL
There was a slight increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year, but that probability remains single digit.
The new numbers suggest that there’s now about a 4-in-9 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 1-in-2 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.
That leaves about 1-in-14 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation.
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.
So, our current estimates are:
There’s now about a 7-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (35%, up from 33%)
There remains about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (32%, down from 33%)
There’s now about a 2-in-9 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (22%, down from 23%)
