2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R10
/This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 80-85% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier
Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast: 90-95% chance of being finalists; 60-75% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, Adelaide, Brisbane Lions: about 70-85% chance of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier
GWS, Fremantle, Carlton. Sydney: about 40% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier
St Kilda, Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide: 3-4% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier
North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier
LADDER FINISHES
The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.
We now have 11 teams with about or better than 2-in-5 chances of finishing Top 8, seven with about or better than 1-in-4 chances of finishing Top 4, and four with better than 10% chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.
Whilst about half the teams still have better than 60% chances of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams would be far more certain with at least 13.5 wins. In fact, only Melbourne on 87% would be assessed as less than 94% chances of playing finals with 13.5 or 14 wins.
Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:
INCREASES
Fremantle: 24% point increase (to 40%) in probability of playing Finals
Geelong, Gold Coast, and Sydney: 11% point increase (to 97%, 92%, and 38% respectively) in probability of playing Finals
Geelong: 26% point increase (to 71%) in probability of finishing Top 4
Western Bulldogs: 18% point increase (to 73%) in probability of finishing Top 4
Gold Coast: 14% point increase (to 47%) in probability of finishing Top 4
DECREASES
GWS: 22% point decrease (to 44%) in probability of playing Finals
Brisbane Lions: 15% point decrease (to 71%) in probability of playing Finals, and 25% point (to 24%) probability of finishing Top 4
St Kilda: 12% point decrease (to 4%) in probability of finishing Top 4
FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS
Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:
Flag favouritism is currently, in order:
Western Bulldogs (about $4.20)
Collingwood (fair price about $4.55)
Geelong (about $5.60)
Hawthorn (about $8.35)
Gold Coast (about $12.50)
COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS
In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:
10,000 different Top 18s
9,694 different Top 8s (which contain 440 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)
1,742 different Top 4s (which contain 250 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)
LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL
Brisbane’s loss and subsequent substantial re-Rating has significantly reduced the likelihood of a Grand Final involving two non-Victorian teams.
In fact, the new numbers suggest that there’s about a 1-in-2 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 4-in-9 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.
That leaves about 1-in-20 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation.
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.
So, our current estimates are:
There’s now only about a 1-in-3 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down from 36%)
There’s also only about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down from 34% to 33%)
There’s now almost a 1-in-4 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (upfrom 18% to 23%)
