2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R9

/

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: over 95% chance of being finalists; 80% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Gold Coast, Adelaide: 80-90% chance of being finalists; 40-50% chances of Top 4; 7-13% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. GWS: about 65% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton: about 45% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 25% chance of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We now have 9 teams with about or better than 1-in-2 chances of finishing Top 8, seven with about or better than 40% chances of finishing Top 4, and four with 10% or better chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

Whilst about half the teams still have better than 60% chances of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams would be far more certain with at least 13.5 wins.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Gold Coast: 13% point increase (to 81%) in probability of playing Finals and 15% point increase (to 43%) in probability of finishing Top 4

  • GWS: 14% point increase (to 66%) in probability of playing Finals

DECREASES

  • Geelong: 15% point decrease (to 46%) in probability of finishing Top 4

  • Western Bulldogs: 12% point decrease (to 54%) in probability of finishing Top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order:

  • Collingwood (fair price about $4.20)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $6.25)

  • Hawthorn (about $6.70)

  • Geelong (about $9.10)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $11.10)

  • Adelaide (about $12.50)

  • Gold Coast (about $14.30)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

Last week we estimated how likely it is that the Grand Final will be between two non-Victorian teams. I thought it worth updating that estimate this week just to see how volatile it is.

The answer is in the table at right.

The new numbers suggest that there’s about a 2-in-5 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 1-in-2 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-10 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation, the most likely of which sees the Lions or the Suns playing Adelaide or Port Adelaide.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are the same or lower than last week’s and have that:

  • There’s still about a 7-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (steady at 36%)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down from 37% to 34%)

  • There’s now only about a 2-in-11 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down from 23% to 18%)