2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R8

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This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 75% chances of Top 4; 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; 35-40% chances of Top 4; 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 70% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. GWS, Carlton: about 45-50% chance of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney: about 35% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1-1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We now have 10 teams with about or better than 1-in-3 chances of finishing Top 8, seven with about or better than 30% chances of finishing Top 4, and five with 10% or better chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

Whilst about half the teams still have better than 2-in-3 chances of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams would be far more certain with at least 13.5 wins.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Adelaide: 19% point increase (to 81%) in probability of playing Finals and 13% point increase (to 36%) in probability of finishing Top 4

  • St Kilda: 13% point increase (to 22%) in probability of playing Finals

DECREASES

  • Fremantle: 20% point decrease (to 23%) in probability of playing Finals

  • Carlton: 15% point decrease (to 43%) in probability of playing Finals

  • Port Adelaide: 11% point decrease (to 14%) in probability of playing Finals

  • GWS: 10% point decrease (to 52%) in probability of playing Finals and 11% point decrease (to 13%) in probability of finishing Top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order:

  • Collingwood (fair price about $4.35)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $5.25)

  • Hawthorn (about $7.15)

  • Geelong (about $8.35)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $9.10)

  • Adelaide (about $20)

  • Gold Coast (about $33)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

I had a query this week about how likely it is that the Grand Final will be between two non-Victorian teams, so I ran the numbers using the latest MoSHBODS simulations. The results are shown in the table at right.

They suggest that there’s about a 4-in-9 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 1-in-2 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-12 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation, the most likely of which sees the Lions or the Suns playing Adelaide or Port Adelaide.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are mostly similar to last week’s and have that:

  • There’s now about a 7-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down from 38% to 36%)

  • There’s still about a 7-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up from 36% to 37%)

  • There’s now almost a 1-in-4 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up from 20% to 23%)