2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R7

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This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 85% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Gold Coast: about 75% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS, Adelaide, Carlton: about 60% chances of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle: about 40% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Port Adelaide, Sydney: about 25% chances of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda, Essendon: about 10% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We now have 10 teams with about or better than 2-in-5 chances of finishing Top 8, nine with better than 20% chances of finishing Top 4, and six with about or better than 8% chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

Whilst some teams have better than 2-in-3 chances of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins (and the chances for most teams have declined with only this many wins compared to their estimated chances last week), most teams would be far more certain with at least 13.5 wins.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Carlton: 15% point increase in probability of playing Finals (to 58%)

  • Gold Coast: 12% point increase in probability of playing Finals (to 73%)

  • Western Bulldogs: 11% point increase in probability of playing Finals (to 86%)

DECREASES

  • GWS, Sydney, and St Kilda: all 11% point decrease in probability of playing Finals

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order:

  • Collingwood (fair price about $3.85)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $7.70)

  • Geelong / Hawthorn (about $8.35)

  • Gold Coast / Carlton (about $16.65)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are mostly similar to last week’s and have that:

  • There’s still almost a 2-in-5 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (still at 38%)

  • There’s still about a 7-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (still at 36%)

  • There’s now a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (from 19% to 20%)