2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R6

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This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 65-80% chances of Top 4; 20-40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Adelaide: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 30-40% chances of Top 4; 6-9% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast: about 60% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney, Port Adelaide: about 35-45% chances of being finalists; 9-13% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. St Kilda, Essendon: about 15-20% chances of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Richmond, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% to 1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We now have 12 teams with about or better than 1-in-3 chances of finishing Top 8, eight with better than 25% chances of finishing Top 4, and eight with about or better than 5% chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

Whilst some teams have better than 2-in-3 chances of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins (and the chances for most teams have improved with only this many wins compared to their estimated chances last week), most teams would be far more certain with at least 13.5 wins.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Western Bulldogs: 26% point increase (to 76%) in probability of playing Finals; 21% point increase (to 38%) of finishing top 4

  • Carlton: 17% point increase (to 43%) in probability of playing Finals; 7% point increase (to 13%) of finishing top 4

  • Collingwood: 11% point increase (to 96%) in probability of playing Finals; 24% point increase (to 79%) of finishing top 4

DECREASES

  • St Kilda: 21% point decrease (to 20%) in probability of playing Finals; 9% point decrease (to 3%) of finishing top 4

  • Gold Coast: 14% point decrease (to 61%) in probability of playing Finals; 17% point decrease (to 26%) of finishing top 4

  • Brisbane Lions: 12% point decrease (to 73%) in probability of playing Finals; 19% point decrease (to 37%) of finishing top 4

  • Fremantle: 11% point decrease (to 36%) in probability of playing Finals; 7% point decrease (to 9%) of finishing top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order:

  • Collingwood (fair price about $4.15)

  • Geelong (about $5.55)

  • Hawthorn (about $7.70)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $10)

  • GWS (about $14.30)

  • Brisbane Lions / Adelaide (about $16.65)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are mostly similar to last week’s and have that:

  • There’s still almost a 2-in-5 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down to 38% from 39%)

  • There’s still about a 7-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 36% from 35%)

  • There’s now almost a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (still 19%)