2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R5

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This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Hawthorn Geelong: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; 50-55% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Gold Coast, GWS: about 75% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide: about 60% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Sydney, St Kilda: about 40-50% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. North Melbourne, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

(Note that I’ve fixed the “Effective Number of Positions Vying For” calculations. See here for details.)

We now have 11 teams with better than 40% chances of finishing Top 8, seven with better than 25% chances of finishing Top 4, and five with better than 10% chances of finishing as the Minor Premier.

Looking at the changes, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Port Adelaide: 12% point increase (to 27%) in probability of playing Finals; 3% point increase (to 6%) of finishing top 4

  • Collingwood: 11% point increase (to 85%) in probability of playing Finals; 15% point increase (to 55%) of finishing top 4

DECREASES

  • Adelaide: 15% point decrease (to 62%) in probability of playing Finals; 15% point decrease (to 27%) of finishing top 4

  • Sydney: 16% point decrease (to 45%) in probability of playing Finals; 11% point decrease (to 14%) of finishing top 4

  • St Kilda: 14% point decrease (to 41%) in probability of playing Finals; 9% point decrease (to 13%) of finishing top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order:

  • Collingwood / Hawthorn

  • Geelong

  • Brisbane Lions

  • GWS

  • Gold Coast

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are mostly similar to last week’s and have that:

  • There’s now almost a 2-in-5 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (up to 39% from 35%)

  • There’s still about a 7-in-20 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (steady at 35%)

  • There’s now almost a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 19% from 18%)