2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R22

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This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast: certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Collingwood: certain of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, and Hawthorn: around 75-85% chance of being finalists; 15-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: around 75% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Western Bulldogs: about 85% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Sydney, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We have 9 teams with a 7-in-10 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and seven with about or better than a 1-in-6 chance of finishing Top 4.

Looking at the changes in Finals chances, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Hawthorn: 17% point increase (to 79%) of finishing Top 8 and 14% point increase (to 17%) of finishing Top 4

  • Gold Coast: 29% point increase (to 85%) of finishing Top 4

  • Fremantle: 12% point increase (to 22%) of finishing Top 4

  • Adelaide: 11% point increase (to 84%) of finishing Minor Premier

DECREASES

  • Brisbane Lions: 13% point decrease (to 85%) of finishing Top 8 and 42% point decrease (to 29%) of finishing Top 4

  • Collingwood: 22% point decrease (to 45%) of finishing Top 4 and 11% decrease (to <1%) of finishing Minor Premier

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $3.05)

  • Adelaide (about $4)

  • Gold Coast (about $10)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $11.15)

  • Collingwood (about $12.50)

  • Hawthorn (about $14.30)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $20)

We can break down those numbers for each team now into which team they lose to in order to bow out in a particular week of the Finals.

Lastly, we can also take a look at likely Grand Final pairings and who fares best in each pairing.

The most common pairing is Geelong / Adelaide, which accounts for about 27% of all Grand Finals. Geelong wins about 60% of those. For other pairings, we have:

  • Adelaide / Gold Coast: about 8% of GFs, Adelaide wins just over half

  • Geelong / Gold Coast: about 8% of GFs, Geelong wins a little less than two-thirds

  • Collingwood / Adelaide: about 6% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 55%

  • Western Bulldogs / Geelong: about 5% of GFs, Western Bulldogs wins just over half

  • Geelong / Collingwood: about 5% of GFs, Geelong wins about 55%

  • Geelong / Brisbane Lions: about 5% of GFs, Geelong wins about two-thirds

  • Adelaide / Brisbane Lions: about 5% of GFs, Adelaide wins about 55%

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 5,845 different Top 18s

  • 1,577 different Top 8s (which contain 7 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 198 different Top 4s (which contain 40 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, there was a small decrease in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s still about a 1-in-6 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another 2-in-3 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-5 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now about a 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (up to 48% from 44%)

  • There’s now almost a 3-in-5 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 58% from 47%)

  • There’s now almost a 3-in-10 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 29% from 17%)