2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R21

/

This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; around 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 7% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 65-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: around 98% chance of being finalists; 55% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, GWS, and Western Bulldogs: around 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 1-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Hawthorn: about 60% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We have 9 teams with a 6-in-10 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and five with about or better than a 5-in-9 chance of finishing Top 4.

Looking at the changes in Finals chances, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Western Bulldogs: 11% point increase (to 87%) of finishing Top 8

  • Brisbane Lions: 32% point decrease (to 71%) of finishing Top 4

  • Adelaide: 12% point decrease (to 73%) of finishing Minor Premier

DECREASES

  • GWS: 14% point decrease (to 75%) of finishing Top 8 and 13% point decrease (to 3%) of finishing Top 4

  • Collingwood: 24% point decrease (to 66%) of finishing Top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $3.45)

  • Adelaide (about $3.60)

  • Collingwood (about $8.35)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $9.10)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $11.15)

  • Gold Coast (about $14.30)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 8,775 different Top 18s

  • 2,898 different Top 8s (which contain 8 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 274 different Top 4s (which contain 54 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, there was an increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s about a 1-in-6 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another 2-in-3 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 2-in-9 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now about a 4-in-9 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (up to 44% from 36%)

  • There’s now almost a 1-in-2 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 47% from 44%)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 17% from 30%)