2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R20

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This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: around 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Brisbane Lions: around 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: around 90% chance of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 2-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We have 9 teams with a 7-in-10 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and six with about or better than a 1-in-6 chance of finishing Top 4.

Looking at the changes in Finals chances, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • Gold Coast: 26% point increase (to 52%) of finishing Top 4

  • Adelaide: 21% point increase (to 60%) of finishing Minor Premier

DECREASES

  • Brisbane Lions: 31% point decrease (to 39%) of finishing Top 4 and 13% point decrease (to 3%) of finishing Minor Premier

  • Gold Coast: 17% point decrease (to 26%) of finishing Top 4

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Adelaide (about $3.35)

  • Geelong (about $4.20)

  • Collingwood (about $4.55)

  • Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs (about $16.7-)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $14.30)

  • Gold Coast (about $20)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 9,678 different Top 18s

  • 4,243 different Top 8s (which contain 9 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 610 different Top 4s (which contain 69 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, there was a small decrease in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s still only about a 1-in-5 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another 2-in-3 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-6 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s now about a 4-in-1chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down to 36% from 38%)

  • There’s now about a 4-in-9 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 44% from 42%)

  • There’s now about a 3-in-10 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (up to 30% from 23%)