2025 : Simulating the Finals After R26 (Week 2 of the Finals)

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FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

MoSHBODS now has the following opinions about the Finals.

The obvious big mover in terms of Flag chances is Hawthorn, who MoSHBODS now has as almost equal favourites with Geelong. Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $3)

  • Hawthorn (about $3.05)

  • Collingwood (about $4.55)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $9.10)

We can break down those numbers for each team now into which team they lose to in order to bow out in a particular week of the Finals.

Lastly, we can also take a look at likely Grand Final pairings and who fares best in each pairing.

The most common pairings are

  • Geelong / Collingwood, which accounts for about 34% of all Grand Finals. Geelong wins about 62% of those.

  • Hawthorn / Collingwood: about 30% of GFs, Hawthorn wins about 69%

  • Geelong / Brisbane Lions: about 20% of GFs, Geelong wins about 66%

  • Hawthorn / Brisbane Lions: about 17% of GFs, Hawthorn wins about 72%

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results a Grand Final without a Victorian team became an impossibility.

The only question that remains is whether there’ll be one or two Victorian teams in that game, and that hinges entirely on whether or not the Lions can beat the Pies.