2025 : Simulating the Finals After R25 (Week 1 of the Finals)

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FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

MoSHBODS now has the following opinions about the Finals.

Flag favouritism is then, currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $2.30)

  • Collingwood (about $3.85)

  • Hawthorn (about $8.35)

  • Adelaide and Brisbane Lions (about $14.30)

  • Gold Coast (about $20)

We can break down those numbers for each team now into which team they lose to in order to bow out in a particular week of the Finals.

Lastly, we can also take a look at likely Grand Final pairings and who fares best in each pairing.

The most common pairings are

  • Geelong / Collingwood, which accounts for about 44% of all Grand Finals. Geelong wins about 63% of those.

  • Geelong / Brisbane Lions: about 14% of GFs, Geelong wins about 71%

  • Hawthorn / Collingwood: about 11% of GFs, Hawthorn wins about 68%

  • Geelong / Gold Coast: about 10% of GFs, Geelong wins about 70%

  • Collingwood / Adelaide: about 10% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 58%

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, which took out two non-Victorian teams, there was a substantial decrease in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now only about a 5-in-9 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another near 2-in-5 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves only about 1-in-20 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. That would happen with an Adelaide v Brisbane Lions, or an Adelaide v Gold Coast Grand Final.