2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R17

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This year’s post Round 17 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-60% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 95% chance of being finalists; 35% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Hawthorn: about 85% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Fremantle: roughly 55-65% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney: roughly 5% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below, along with the changes they represent compared to last week.

We have 9 teams with a better than a 5-in-9 chance of finishing Top 8, and seven with about or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

Whilst a number of team have 50% chances or better of playing Finals with 12.5 or 13 wins, most teams with credible chances would be 80% confident of playing Finals with at least 13.5 wins.

Best with 12.5 or 13 wins are Adelaide (83%), Geelong (77%), Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast (72%).

Looking at the changes in Finals chances, we have as the most dramatic:

INCREASES

  • GWS: 15% point increase (to 68%) in probability of playing Finals

DECREASES

  • Fremantle: 15% point decrease (to 56%) in probability of playing Finals

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Collingwood (about $3.70)

  • Geelong (about $4.55)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $5.25)

  • Adelaide (about $9.10)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $12.50)

  • Hawthorn (about $16.70)

  • Gold Coast (about $20)

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 9,984 different Top 18s

  • 6,205 different Top 8s (which contain 53 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 736 different Top 4s (which contain 84 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, there was no significant change in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now about a 4-in-9 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, and about another 1-in-2 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-14 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s still about a 3-in-10 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (steady at 30%)

  • There is still about a 4-in-11 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (steady at 37%)

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-7 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (14%, down from 18%)