2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R24

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With just a single home and away game yet to play, the only interest is in estimating:

  1. The probability that Gold Coast defeat Essendon and thereby claim a spot in the Finals at the expense of Western Bulldogs

  2. The probability that they do so by a sufficiently wide margin to have them finishing above Hawthorn

To finish above Hawthorn:

  • If Gold Coast scores 80 points, they need to win by 26 points or more

  • If Gold Coast scores 100 points, they need to win by 29 points or more

  • If Gold Coast scores 120 points, they need to win by 32 points or more

LADDER FINISHES

According to WoSHBODS, the answers are:

  1. About 93%

  2. About 71%

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $2.45)

  • Adelaide (about $5)

  • Collingwood (about $6.70)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $7.15)

  • Hawthorn (about $20)

We can break down those numbers for each team now into which team they lose to in order to bow out in a particular week of the Finals.

Lastly, we can also take a look at likely Grand Final pairings and who fares best in each pairing.

The most common pairings are

  • Geelong / Adelaide, which accounts for about 27% of all Grand Finals. Geelong wins about 65% of those.

  • Geelong / Brisbane Lions: about 20% of GFs, Geelong wins about 65%

  • Geelong / Collingwood: about 13 of GFs, Geelong wins about 60%

  • Collingwood / Adelaide: about 11% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 60%

  • Brisbane Lions / Adelaide: about 7% of GFs, Brisbane Lions wins just over half

  • Collingwood / Brisbane Lions: about 4% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 55%%

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, there was a small decrease in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now only about a 1-in-6 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another 3-in-4 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-9 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.