The now-usual seven games again this week, with expected victory margins ranging from 5 to 56 points, comprising three games with expected margins under 3 goals, three more in the roughly 4 to 6 goal range, and then that expected 9 to 10 goal blowout.
What do the models think?
Read MoreMoSSBODS left its Top 4 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS swapped Adelaide in for Brisbane Lions at position number four.
Altogether, MoSSBODS made eight changes and MoSHBODS 10, all mostly by a single spot the exceptions being Adelaide up 2 and Carlton down 2 on MoSSBODS, and Sydney up 2 and Carlton down 2 on MoSHBODS.
At the end of it all, the two Systems share a Top 3 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Geelong.
Read MoreAll of the seven early-week favourites were successful this weekend, so contrarianism was the only reason not to tip the card.
One-game contrarians were MoSHPlay_Marg, ENS_Linear, MoSHBODS_Marg, and Consult the Ladder, and the only two-game contrarian was Home Sweet Home.
All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished leading Bookie Knows Best by only tips tips, and ENS_Linear is now three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.
The all-Tipster score came in at 6.3 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 90.9 from 134 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 26 points.
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Blues by 5 points for tonight’s game and also now has preliminary views about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the Thursday night game are Blues by 5 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 3.2 points per game, and there are three games where the difference exceeds 4 points. Across all seven games, MoSSBODS’ average is two points per game higher than MoSHBODS’ but still 4 points per game below the bookmakers’.
Read MoreThe now-usual seven games again this week, with expected victory margins ranging from 5 to 56 points, comprising three games with expected margins under 3 goals, three more in the roughly 4 to 6 goal range, and then that expected 9 to 10 goal blowout.
What do the models think?
Read MoreMoSSBODS left its Top 6 and Bottom 7 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS swapped the Pies and the Cats at positions 2 and 3, lifted the Lions into 4, and moved eight other teams from lower down the ordering by a single spot.
At the end of it all, the two Systems share a Top 4 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Geelong, and Brisbane Lions.
Read MoreOnly four of the seven early-week favourites were successful this weekend, and, with only mild contrarianism once more the climate, registered scores were mostly around that number, the exceptions being Consult the Ladder and MoSSBODS_Marg’s threes, and MoSHPlay_Marg’s five.
That five saw MoSHPlay_Marg reestablish a three tip lead over Bookie Knows Bestand a five tip lead over ENS_Linear.
MoSHPlay_Marg now sits on 94.5 from 127 (74%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 3.9 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 84.6 from 127 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at the Dogs by 71 points, its highest forecast margin of the season.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Swans by half an angstrom.
MoSHPlay is locking in Dockers by 34 points and now has preliminary thoughts about the remainder of the round, which appear below.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the Thursday night game are Dockers by 34 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.3 points per game, with the maximum difference in one game just over 6 points and the next highest just under 4 points. Their all-game averages match (MoSSBODS) or are a couple of points less than (MoSHBODS) the bookmakers’.
Read MoreSeven games again this week, all of them with a home team favourite. Three are expected to be won by less than three goals, three by four to five goals, and one by eight goals.
To the models.
Read MoreMoSSBODS left its Top 7 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS fiddled a bit but moved no team by more than a single spot.
At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and then Geelong, while MoSHBODS’ is Western Bulldogs, Geelong, and then Collingwood.
Read MoreSIx of the seven early-week favourites got up this weekend, and, with only mild contrarianism, registered scores were mostly around that number, the big exception being Home Sweet Home who scored only two.
MoSHPlay_Marg registered only five, however, which allowed Bookie Knows Best to close its lead to just two tips on the Head-to-Head Predictor Leaderboard. ENS_Linear sits in 3rd, two tips further back.
MoSHPlay_Marg now sits on 89.5 from 120 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 80.7 from 120 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s got around to looking at the new lists for the Sunday game and has made a few adjustments, pending the final teams.
MoSHPlay has ended at Lions by 21 points.
MoSHPlay’s sticking with Dogs by 33 points tonight and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow’s game is Dogs by 33 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.5 points per game, with the difference in one game just under 6 points and in two more over 3 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are 1 or 2 points higher than the bookmakers’.
Read MoreOnly seven games this week, all of them expected to be won by about 5 goals or less, and three of them by 3 goals or less.
Read MoreBoth Systems lowered the Ratings of the Top 3 teams this week, but they remain, in order and for both, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.
In total, MoSSBODS moved only five teams this week and MoSHBODS only three, with Carlton (up 2 to 7th) and Adelaide (down 3 to 9th) the only multi-spot movers on MoSSBODS. No team moved by more than a single spot on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreSIx of the eight early-week favourites got up this weekend, and, with minimal contrarianism once again, registered scores were mostly that number with the exceptions being Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder who both scored only four.
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 84.5 from 113 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 75.7 from 113 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow’s game is Pies by 24 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 18 points.
MoSHPlay now has some preliminary views about the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 27 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tonight’s game is Dogs by 26 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is just under 3 points per game, with differences in two games as high as 5 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are, unusually, 5 or 6 points higher than the bookmakers’.
At least part of the reason for that difference is the rain that is expected to affect a number of games.
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