2025 - Round 15 : Not Done Yet

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Seven games again this week, all of them with a home team favourite. Three are expected to be won by less than three goals, three by four to five goals, and one by eight goals.

To the models.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The only contrarian tips this week come from Consult the Ladder and MoSSBODS_Marg, and both come in the Giants v Suns game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors there are double-digit forecast ranges in five of the seven games, most notably 21 points in the Dogs v Tigers clash, 18 points in the Blues v Roos clash, and 16 points in the Cats v Lions matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg is the extreme Predictor in four games, and Bookie_9 and ENS_Linear in three games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two game with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: 13% points in the Cats v Lions, and Blues v Roos games.

MoSSBODS_Prob is the extreme Predictor in six games, and Bookie_OE in four games.

WAGERS

MoSHBODS has found apparent value in four teams this week, and in both the head-to-head and line markets for all fourof them. The head-to-head wagers range in size from 1.9% to 6.3%, and total just under 17% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line wagers range in size from 1.3% to 5.5%, and total just under 15% of the original Line Fund.

The only shenanigans was in relation to the Geelong line wager where we wanted 5.5% at $1.90 -14.5 but had to settle for 2.7% at $1.90 -14.5 and 2.8% at $1.90 -15.5.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The week’s Ready Reckoner reveals that Geelong carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win by 16 points or more and a loss represents 9.1% of the original Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Western Bulldogs carry 8% risk, Fremantle 4.3%, and Carlton 2.2%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 10c, while a worst case set would snip almost 14c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.