The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.3 points per game, with the maximum difference in one game just over 6 points and the next highest just under 4 points. Their all-game averages match (MoSSBODS) or are a couple of points less than (MoSHBODS) the bookmakers’.

There is a very high level of agreement about the lowest- and highest-scoring games and teams this week:

Highest Scoring Game

All: Western Bulldogs v Richmond

Lowest Scoring Game

All: Fremantle v Essendon

Highest Scoring Team

All: Western Bulldogs

Lowest Scoring Team

All: Richmond (TAB also Essendon)

WAGERS

With so much agreement, it’s not all that surprising that MoSSBODS has found only the one wager this week, an unders wager in the Pies v Saints game.

The estimated overlay in the wagered-upon game is just over 9 points, and the wager is 3.4%.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week saw the TAB take mean absolute error (MAE) honours for all four metrics, which of course allowed it to retain the season-long lead for all four as well.

The leads are now as follows:

Game Margins: the TAB 3 points ahead of Sportsbet, 59 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 171 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: TAB 5 points ahed of MoSHBODS, 13 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 83 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: the TAB 8 points ahead of Sportsbet, 39 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 77 points ahead of MoSSBODS
Game Totals: TAB 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS, 10 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 53 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was one bet last week, an unsuccessful overs wager with the TAB. That left MoSSBODS with a 12 and 10 season-long record against the TAB, and still a 5 and 5 season-long record against Sportsbet.

(Note that the Round 13 overs wager with Sportsbet was last week incorrectly recorded as an unders wager in this table)

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the TAB in only 3 games and of Sportsbet in just 2 games. MoSHBODS fared a little better and registered 4 correct selections against both bookmakers.

That takes MoSSBODS to 59 from 120 (49%) against the TAB and against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 70 from 120 (58%) against the TAB, and 68 from 120 (57%) against Sportsbet.

The round-by-round performance is shown in the following table.